文档介绍：摘要
改革开放以来,我国国民经济快速发展、金融行业也逐步成长、成熟与开放。当然,国际资本也越来越多的参与到中国经济快速发展的步伐中去,其中尤其是我们通常所说的热钱即短期国际资本,由于其高流动性和逐利性,对国民经济的发展与安全的影响已经越来越大,因此,有必要对其进行研究与分析。本文在回顾国内外的经典文献的基础上,通过对2001年至2010年各变量的季度统计数据进行实证研究,最终找到了影响我国短期资本流入的主要因素。本文研究发现:我国短期资本流动的速度很快,规模也越来越大。在影响因素中,房地产价格、物价指数和经济增长等因素是影响我国国际短期资本流动的主要因素。最后,提出加强国际合作严密监管资本的同时提出房地产改革,稳定大宗商品等物价和保持经济合理增长等有针对性的政策建议。
关键词:热钱,房地产价格指数,物价指数,经济增长
ABSTRACT
Since reform and opening, China's rapid economic development, the financial industry has gradually grown, mature and open. Of course, more and more international capital to participate in the pace of China's rapid economic development to go, including in particular the hot money that we usually refer to short-term international capital, due to its high liquidity and profit-driven, the development of the national economy and security has e increasingly large, therefore, it is necessary to carry out research and analysis. This paper reviewed the basis of classical literature at home and abroad, through to 2001 to 2010 quarterly statistics of each variable empirical research and finally found the impact of short-term capital inflows of the main factors. The research found: My short-term capital flows quickly, ing ever larger. Factors that affect real estate prices, price index and economic growth and other factors that affect China's international short-term capital flows, the main factors. Finally, close international cooperation to strengthen the regulatory capital raised, while the real estate reform, stability, and modity prices and to maintain reasonable growth of economic policy mendations, which are targeted
Key words: hot money, Corporate Goods Price Index,Price index, economic growth
目录
摘要…………………………………………………………………………………Ⅰ
Abstract…………………………………………………………………………Ⅱ
引言 1
一、研究背景及立项意义 1
(一)研究背景 1
(二)立项意义 2
二、关于热钱的文献回顾 3
(二)国外研究动态 3
(三)国内研究动态 4
三、我国热钱流入影响因素的实证分析 5
(一)数据来源与样本选取、处理 5
(二)研究变量的选取 6
1、因变量即热钱规模的选取 6
2、自变量的选取 7
(三)模型设定与实证分析 8
1、ADF平稳性检验 8
2、协整关系检验。 9
3、Granger因果关系检