文档介绍：Technological Forecasting & Social Change 74 (2007) 1083–1107
Climate change impacts on irrigation water requirements:
Effects of mitigation, 1990–2080
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Günther Fischer a, , Francesco N. Tubiello a,b,
Harrij van Velthuizen a, David A. Wiberg a
a Land-Use Change and Agriculture Program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),
Laxenburg, Austria
b Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
Received 7 February 2006; received in revised form 10 May 2006; accepted 24 May 2006
Abstract
Potential changes in global and regional agricultural water demand for irrigation were investigated within a new
socio-economic scenario, A2r, developed at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) with
and without climate change, with and without mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. Water deficits of crops were
developed with the Food and anization (FAO)–IIASA Agro-ecological Zone model, based on daily
water balances at ° latitude ×° longitude and then aggregated to regions and the globe. Future regional and
global irrigation water requirements puted as a function of both projected irrigated land and climate
change and simulations were performed from 1990 to 2080. Future trends for extents of irrigated land, irrigation
water use, and withdrawals puted, with specific attention given to the implications of climate change
mitigation. Renewable water-resource availability was estimated under current and future climate conditions.
Results suggest that mitigation of climate change may have significant positive pared with unmitigated
climate change. Specifically, mitigation reduced the impacts of climate change on agricultural water requirements
by about 40%, or 125–160billionm3 (Gm3) compared with unmitigated climate. Simple estimates of future
changes in irrigation efficiency and water costs suggest that by 2080 mitigation may translate into annual cost
reductions of a