文档介绍：Technological Forecasting & Social Change 74 (2007) 887–935
Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental
development under climate stabilization
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Keywan Riahi a, , Arnulf Grübler a,b, Nebojsa Nakicenovic a,c
a Transitions to New Technologies Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
b School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
c Department of Power Systems and Energy Economics, Technical University Vienna, Austria
Received 4 March 2006; received in revised form 10 March 2006; accepted 24 May 2006
Abstract
This paper presents an overview of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios that form the analytical
backbone for other contributions to this Special Issue. We first describe the motivation behind this scenario
exercise and introduce the main scenario features and characteristics, in both qualitative and quantitative terms.
Altogether, we analyze three ‘baseline’ scenarios of different socio-economic and technological developments that
are assumed not to include any explicit climate policies. We then impose a range of climate stabilization targets on
these baseline scenarios and analyze in detail the feasibility, costs and uncertainties of meeting a range of different
climate stabilization targets in accordance with Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change. The scenarios were developed by the IIASA Integrated Assessment Modeling Framework that -
passes detailed representations of the principal GHG-emitting sectors—energy, industry, agriculture, and forestry.
The main analytical findings from our analysis focus on the implications of salient uncertainties (associated with
scenario baselines and stabilization targets), on feasibility and costs of climate stabilization efforts, and on the
choice of appropriate portfolios of emissions abatement measures. We further analyze individual technological
options with regar