文档介绍：望堡匿垄鲨塑堕刿堡至壁望盟壅芏—————————————————』i!鱼坠 ABSTRACT The sixth enlargement ofEurope Union was realized atMay,1“ accession ofseveralCentral and Eastern European Countries toEMU islikely tobe realized within the next isan candidates are better or worse suitable participants. important issue to assess whether these forEMU membership than the current The theory ofoptimum currency areas provides several criteria foranalyzing a prospective ary researching ary union,we alsoanalyze theeconomic shocks through Vector Auto Regressions paperanalyzes the eastern enlargement ofEMU through bothofthe approaches. Inthepresent paper,we employ methodologies developed with regard tothe theory ofoptimum currency areas inthe context ofpresent EMU and use aVAR approach toidentify economic shocks that hitthe Euro aspirants inthe past. Correlations ofthese shocks withthoseofcurrent EMU countries doshedlight on the question whether acommon ary policymay besuitable ornot. The conclusion ofthispaper isthat thecandidates ale notsuitable tojoin EMU directly aftertheyjoin countries couldjoin EMU aftertwoyears’interim likeSlovenia,Hungry and Czech should prolong theinterim to develop economics through ,to realize theprospective of eastern enlargement,the ECU’anization system should reform based on the efficiency as soon aspossible. Keywords: OCA,EMU,Eastern enlargement,Shock analysis,VAR model Classified No.:F820 3 通货区理论和欧洲货币联盟的东扩吕瑜刚第一章引言第一节背景介绍 2002年1月1日,欧元的正式流通成为欧洲经济货币一体化的里程碑。近 20年来,欧盟内部各种一体化工作进行的如火如荼,而目前正在进行的欧盟扩张和欧洲货币一体化,更使欧洲进入了一个史无前例的经济时代。在欧盟内部一体化继续深化的同时,中东欧国家与欧盟也开始了关于欧盟东扩的谈判。按照谈判的进程,欧盟候选国将于2 004年正式成为欧盟的一员, 其后在加入欧盟的同时,每一个候选国也必须加入EMS—II汇率系统。最终,在加入欧盟至少2年时间的过渡期后,真正加入欧元区的经济合作中。加入欧盟将加快他们加入欧元区的步伐,欧元区的大门将于2 006年向它们敞开。对于所有正在谈判的候选国,使用欧元也将是他们未来的义务之一,因为入盟协议没有任何选择性的其它条款。(这一点不同于原欧盟成员国,他们在组建欧洲货币联盟时可以选择加入或者暂不加入,所以至今仍有部分欧盟成员国尚未加入货币联盟,例如丹麦、英国和瑞士。) 欧盟在扩张和深化的过程中对所有成员(无论加入时阃长短)都是一视同仁的,所以新旧成员都必须承诺遵守所有欧盟的法律、条约和裁决。这样我们在研究中东欧国家时就有