文档介绍：Presented at
Innovative Applications of
Artifi cial Intelligence (IAAI)
July 2004
Agent-based Simulation of Geo-Political Confl ict
Glenn Taylor1, Richard Frederiksen1, Russell R. Vane, III2, Edward Waltz2
1Soar Technology, Inc., 3600 Green Court Suite 600, Ann Arbor, MI 48103
2General Dynamics – Advanced Information Systems, 1400 Key Blvd, Suite 700, Arlington, VA 22209
glenn@, rdf@, russ.******@gd-, ed.******@gd-
Abstract analysts to quickly familiarize themselves with new
The intelligence analysis task of anticipating crises and decision-makers in the regions.
providing decision makers with reasonable (supportable, Several tools and techniques are currently available to
explainable) possible futures is extremely diffi cult. To perform an analyst to help perform the task of state and leadership
this task, a team of analysts must consider the political, analysis, including work analysis, role-playing
economic, and military aspects of national governments and
non-anizations. This paper describes an (“Red Teaming”) and wargaming. However, most of these
agent-based simulation framework, the Advanced Global techniques are performed manually, with only basic tools
Intelligence and Leadership Experiment (AGILE), for such as databases and search engines used to assist. Recent
building executable models for conducting regional analysis. governme