文档介绍：ENERGY/POWER GLOBAL EQUITY RESEARCH
Asian Utilities ASIA
China Electricity Overview
A Look at Dark Matter in Our Universe
Angello Chan n Without a direct cost pass through in power tariff setting, the profit margins of
Chinese IPPs are directly affected by fuel cost fluctuations.
@
n While rising demand, removal of government subsidies and tighter environmental
Flora Wang
regulations could push up prices, the change in China’s fuel mix towards using
@ more nuclear, hydro and gas for power generation, as well petition from
coal imports could offset upward price pressure. We expect a modest low single
digit price increase annually beyond 2003.
n Through acquisitions or construction, IPPs with large-scale installed capacity will
gain bargaining power to negotiate lower coal purchasing prices. Currently, HPI
has the biggest installed capacity base of 14,363MW. At the end of December
2002, HPI’s pany is the only one having announced its on-going
support for HPI by giving it preferential rights to acquire its generation assets.
n The annual coal conference has just pleted. HPI, Datang and SIPDC
have secured 50%, 85%-90%, and 90% of their FY03 total planned coal
consumption, respectively. Although the IPPs and coal producers failed to agree on
coal prices and negotiation is expected to carry on until after Chinese New Year,
we believe unit coal purchase price for the IPPs in FY03 will be flat or increase
moderately.
n Qinhuangdao fob price for coal, the major barometer of Chinese export coal
prices, is higher than Newcastle fob and Indonesia fob prices.
n HPI’s coal-fired plants, along the southeast coastline in Fuzhou, Nantong,
Shanghai, Shantou, Huaiyin, Taicang, Changxing, and Nanjing, all have seaport
access that allows HPI to purchase imported coal to substitute PRC coal should
PRC coal prices move higher than foreign coa