文档介绍：河北经贸大学
硕士学位论文
技术冲击与中国经济周期波动——基于实际经济周期理论的研
究
姓名:王栋轩
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:政治经济学
指导教师:田光
20070601
技术冲击与中国经济周期波动

内容摘要

本文在新古典的假定下,依据实际经济周期理论,详细地研究了技术冲击对中国经
济周期波动的影响。有别于非均衡分析,本文假定古典两分法是有效的,并且经济具有
重要的瓦尔拉斯特征。虽然这些假定对现实经济来说是比较苛刻的,但是它有助于我们
单独地具体地来考察技术冲击对经济波动的影响,因此也是必要的。
在上述假设的基础上,文章首先从技术的概念入手,明确地提出技术冲击的含义和
性质。并构建技术冲击对经济周期波动影响的分析框架,即简化的实际经济周期模型以
此来衡量技术冲击的基本方法以及技术冲击作用的传导机制。
具体研究了改革开放以来中国经济周期波动的基本态势和特征,最后分析经济周期
波动的原因以及形成机理,详细考察了技术冲击对我国经济周期波动的影响。
采用现代计量经济方法对技术冲击的影响作了定量的分析,结论是在具体的假设之
下,技术冲击能够解释一半以上的经济周期波动。最后根据前面的分析提出如何更好的
利用新技术来解决就业和经济持续增长的问题,从而在长期内实现经济周期的平滑化。

关键词:技术冲击经济周期索洛剩余全要素增长率
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河北经贸大学硕士学位论文

Abstract

This article has studied the Influence of technology shock in detail on Chinese business
cycles, using the noe-classical hypothesis and real business cycle theory. Different to
traditional nonequilibrium analysis, this article assumes that the classical dichotomy is effective
and the economy has an important Walrasian character. Although these assumptions are not
exact with the real economy, they can help us study one factor’s influence on economic
fluctuation independently. So it is necessary.
On the basic of the above assumption, this article proposed the meanings and quality of
technology shock. Also we have constructed the analysis frame to analyse the influence of
technology shock on economic fluctuation, as well as the simple model of real business cycles
and conduction mechanism of technology shock.
In the following part of the article we have studied the difference between economic cycles
and fluctuation. On the same time we analysed Chinese business cycles post innovation and
the cause of economic fluctuation.
We adopted modern metriceconomic method to analyse the quantitative influence of
technology. The conclusion is that, under certain assumption, technology shock can explain
more than a half economic fluctuation. Finally we bring forward some advice on