文档介绍：华中科技大学
硕士学位论文
中国农业周期对经济周期的影响研究
姓名:邓操
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:西方经济学
指导教师:徐长生
20060401
摘要
中国是一个发展中的大国,工业化进程中二元结构的矛盾依然相当突出。改革
开放以来,引起我国经济波动的第一原因是需求拉动,特别是投资需求的拉动作用。
投资过热带来经济扩张和高通胀,这时市场力量的自发调节驱使资源向第二、第三
产业倾斜,二、三产业发展速度加快,从而使得二元结构失衡,农业比较利益下降。
这就会影响农民种田的积极性,造成农业减产,农产品价格上涨。而农产品又是我
国居民消费支出中的重要组成部分,其价格上涨会推动通货膨胀,进一步加剧经济
过热的形势,这时政府不得不采取紧缩的政策,抑制投资,并增加对农业的投入。
因此,农业周期与经济周期具有相关性,农业波动虽不是经济波动的第一原因,但
是却是第二原因,即加剧经济波动。
通过对改革开放以来的统计数据进行趋势分析以及协整研究,本文证实了农业
周期与经济周期之间的长期相关关系。通过理论分析并结合经验数据分析的结果,
本文建立了“固定资产投资→农业→整体经济波动→固定资产投资和农业再波动”
的循环传导机制。对这一传导机制的进一步研究和分析,发现如果要使这一机制发
挥其积极作用,需要政府加强宏观调控,促进农业固定资产投资的持续增长以及实
现工业反哺农业,实现工农业在动态中平衡发展,从而促进我国的工业化和现代化,
实现经济的持续增长。

关键词:经济周期农业周期二元经济

I
Abstract
China is a big developing country. The dual structure problem in the industrialization
is still quite serious. Since the reform and opening- up, the pull of aggregate demand,
especially investment, has been the first force of economic fluctuations. Over investment
always induces economic boom and high inflation. Then the market force makes resources
inevitably go to the secondary industry and the tertiary-industry much more than the
agriculture. This will make the dual structure more unbalanced, and decrease the
comparative advantage of agriculture, which induces the decrease of the agricultural
production and rise of the price of agricultural products. As we know, the agricultural
products are the important parts of household consumption in China. So the rise of
agricultural products price will lead to higher inflation. Thus the government has to adopt
the tight policy to suppress investment and increase the input to agriculture. To sum up,
the agriculture cycles have relativity with the business cycles in China, although the
agricultural fluctuation is not the first force, but the second one of the economic
fluctuation which intensifies the latter.
Through the tendency and cointegration analysis, this dissertation finds the long-term
relations