文档介绍：证券研究报告_行业深度研究报告2010年11月26日行业评级零售业2011年投资策略前次评级买入零售商的商业地产机遇欧亚菲分析师行业走势电话:020-87555888-641eMail:******@SAC执业证书编号:S0260208020271明年行业仍将保持快速增长展望明年,我们认为国家收紧货币政策和采取价格管制,将有利于将通胀控制在合理范围,这将有利于稳定消费者预期,对于保持消费持续稳定增长将起到积极作用,我们预计明年社会消费品零售总额增速仍将保持在18%以上。%%%产业转型和消费升级将加大商业地产的需求,而目前低估的商业地产沪深300-%%-%为零售商进入该领域提供了良好的机会,零售商进入该领域主要有两种模式,一种模式为拿地自建自用,主要代表零售商为银座股份、欧亚集团、百联股份等公司,一种模式为百货和商业地产开发并举,主要代表为成商集团和南京中商。我们更看好第二种模式。投资建议从行业来看,我们仍然最看好百货行业,我们认为超市行业将受到价格管制影响。我们建议重点关注行业内重资产公司,在未来行业租售比不断提升情况下,他们在长期将受益更大,且不用受制于租金水平提升的压力。我们重点推荐的公司包括小商品城、成商集团、银座股份、南京中商。同时行业内低估的品种在业绩增速超预期情况下,会有较大的投资机会,明年一季度我们重点推荐广州友谊,同时可以关注中兴商业。区域角度来看,我们认为估值合理,明年受益于西安园林博览会的西安民生可重点关注,同时友好集团目前估值逐步回落,已经进入合理投资区域。新华百货作为明年二季度的重点品种,建议在明年一季度开始关注投资机会。广百股份建议关注集团三旧土地改造为上市公司提供优质商业物业机会。行业龙头方面,我们仍然长期推荐王府井、苏宁电器。:公司报表,广发证券发展研究中心渐飞研究报告-、行业销售持续向好·························································································································4(一)行业销售持续回升·········································································································································4(二)百家重点零售企业销售呈现出较强的季节性特征····················································································5(三)消费者信心有所回落·····································································································································6二、投资主题:零售商的商业地产投资机遇···························································································6(一)产业转型和消费升级下商业地产机会凸现································································································6(二)商业物业价值低估,为零售商提高自有物业比例提供了良好机遇