文档介绍：基于贸易引力模型的中国对东盟农产品出口贸易影响因素研究摘要随着“早期收获计划”的实施、《货物贸易协议》的签署和中国一东盟自贸区的启动,中国与东盟的农产品贸易发展十分迅速,但同时,中国对东盟的农产品贸易呈现出逆差的状态。研究中国对东盟农产品出口贸易影响因素,有利于扭转贸易逆差,优化农业和农产品结构,提升农产品国际竞争力,促进中国与东盟农产品贸易繁荣发展。本文首先对中国与东盟的农产品贸易格局进行整体分析,分析显示:双边的农产品贸易规模发展迅速,产业内贸易程度较高,但基于RCA、TC指数的计算表明,中国对东盟的农产品贸易竞争优势并不明显。然后在对中国对东盟农产品出口贸易影响因素进行机理分析基础上,,经过平稳性和协整检验后,基于扩展的贸易引力模型进行了实证分析,结果显示:经济规模与国家规模差异指数促进了中国对东盟农产品的出口, 但Thom和McDowell指数的水平产业内贸易程度较低;中国与东盟的制度差距、海运距离起到预期的反作用;,汇率的波动则明显阻碍了HS07章蔬菜类的出口。最后,运用相关理论,针对影响因素机理分析和实证研究结论,提出促进农产品产业内贸易、优化农产品出口结构、加强汇率和制度建设、提升农产品物流能力等方面的对策与建议。关键词:农产品出El东盟影响因素贸易引力模型万方数据 STUDY ON THE INFLUENCING FACTORS OF CHINA’S AGRICUIJURAL EXPOl之T TO ASEAN BASED ON TRADE GRAVITY MODEL ABSTRACT The bilateral agricultural cooperation between China and ASEAN has arapid development sincetheimplementation ofthe”Early Harvest Program”,the signing of <Agreemem on trade ingoods>and the startofCAFTA,But China’Sagricultural trade withASEAN has been in study on theinfluencing factors of China’Sagricultural export toASEAN,not only can change thepresent situation,but alsoCanadjust the our agricultural structure toadapt tothe new internationalpolitical and economic environment,to promote the bilateralagricultural trade. Firstly,this paper analyses the overall structure ofbilateralagricultural tradeand shows that:bilateralagricultural tradehasdeveloped rapidly,the degree ofintra—industry trade isrelativelyhi曲,but theagricultural exportadvantage is not obvious astothe calculating ofRCAand selectthe 2000-2012 panel dataofChina’S agricultural export toASEAN based onMechanism analysis,After stationary testand COintegration test,making anempirical research byexpanded gravity model oftrade:the bilateral GDP and thedifference ofnational scalehave positive effect,bm China’S HIIT is not high,Institutional distanceandshipping distance between China and ASEAN hinderthe export ofChina’Sagricultural products asexpect;TCI ofbilateralagricultural tra