文档介绍：短期冲击对长期增长路径的影响
——兼论经济周期理论与经济增长理论的相关性
华中科技大学经济学院徐长生

Effects of the Short-run Shock on the Long-run Economic Growth:
The Linkage of Economic Growth Theory with Business Cycle Theory
Changsheng Xu
School of Economics, Huazhong University of Science & Technology.
Wuhan, 430074, China

Abstract: This paper finds that the short-run shock such as the financial crisis
has the lasting negative effects on the long-run economic growth from the facts that
the growth process happens to be broken off and falls into the long period recession in
the past two or three decades in some Latin American and East Asian countries after
they have realized economic taking-off and long-term high growth. So the traditional
macroeconomic theory that the long-run growth is not affected by the short-run
fluctuation is doubtful. Because of the effects of the short-run shock, the growth trend
of the potential GDP is not fixed, but changeable. This paper analyses some probable
mechanism of effects of the short-run shock on the long-run growth theoretically and
experientially, including the rigidity of the insufficiency of aggregate demand, the
money or financial crisis which blocks or destroys the channel of saving-investment,
and the policy reaction on the shock and the adaptive institutional reform and
technological innovation. The policy conclusion of this paper is that we should take
precautions against the short-run shock, especially the occurrence and spread of
money or financial crisis.

摘要:本文根据最近二、三十年来拉美和东亚一些国家在实现了经济起飞
和高速增长之后,增长进程出现了长时间的中断或停滞这一新事实,发现像金融
危机这样的短期性冲击对一国的经济增长路径具有长期的、持久的负面影响。因
此,传统的宏观经济学中经济长期增长不受短期波动影响即经济增长理论与经济
周期理论无关的命题是值得怀疑的。笔者进而认为,由于短期波动和冲击的影响,
一国的潜在增长趋势并非象现有增长理论所假定的那样是不变的,而是可变的。
文中还从理论上和经验上考察了短期冲击影响长期增长的可能机制,包括总需求
1
不足的长期化,财政、金融、货币危机使储蓄-投资转化渠道长期受阻,以及对
短期冲击所作出的政策反应、制度改革、技术创新等。最后得出的政策结论是:
必须预防和阻止短期冲击的发生,特别是财政危机、金融危机和货币危机的出现
和蔓延对长期趋势的干扰和破坏。
关键词:短期冲击经济周期经济增长

一、问题的提出:增长进程为何出现长期中断
最近二、三