文档介绍：房价波动对居民消费影响的实证研究
摘要
在房价持续波动、消费明显不足、房地产投资者急剧增加的经济
大背景下,房地产作为居民持有资产中价格波动较为频繁的品种,其
价格的波动是否对居民消费产生影响越来越受到理论界和国家相关
部门的重视。因此,房地产价格波动对居民消费的影响这一选题有着
重要的理论背景和现实背景。
本文在总结梳理房价波动影响消费相关理论的基础上,采用平稳
性检验、差分、协整检验、格兰杰检验及回归模型、ECM误差修正
模型等方法,运用全国时间序列、城市面板数据、截面数据三个层面
来研究房价波动对居民消费的影响力实证表明:房价波动在全国地域
内能够引起消费性支出产生变化;长期的城市房地产财富效应是正向
的,短期来看是负向的;房价下降对居民消费产生负的影响,房价下
降对消费的收缩作用小于房价上涨对消费的促进作用。接下来探讨了
现象背后的原因,即财富效应的传导机制及制约因素。通过理论归纳
与实证研宄,我国房地产市场财富效应的传导机制主要为消费者信心
效应与房地产银行信贷的杠杆效应。通过与发达国家研究结果的对比,
我国财富效应还没有得到充分发挥,影响房地产财富效应的因素主要
有很多,但是在现阶段制约我国房地产财富效应的首要原因在于房价
1
浙江工业大学硕士学位论文房价波动对居民消费影响的实证研宄
上涨速度过快,自主性需求购买力不足,*其次是消费者的信贷g束与
文化习惯的差异,货币政策调控频繁,金融工具的不完善。
关键词:财富效应,格兰杰检验,误差修正,传导机制,实证研宄
II
浙江工业大学顾士学位论文房价波动对居民消费影响的实证研宄
AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF THE IMPACTOF THE
HOUSING PRICES ON CONSUMPTION
ABSTRACT
Housing prices continuing to be volatile, the consumpation is obviously insufficient,
and there is a sharp increase in real estate investors1>.In this context,the real estate as
residents' holdings varieties, the fluctuations of itsprices are more
the price volatility has an impact on consumptionhas drawn increasing attention of the
relevant departments. Therefore, this topic of real estate price fluctuations on
household consumption has important theoretical background and practical
background.
This paper summarizes bs theoriesof price fluctuations affecting
consumption,then base on the method of stationary test, differential,cointegration test,
Granger test ,the regression model, and error correction model, use three kinds of data
(the national time series, city panel data,cross-section) to study the impact of price
fluctuations on household consumption. Empirical evidence shows that: price
fluctuations can cause changes in the consumer spending in the national territory;
term city real estate wealth effect is positive, but the short term is negative; decline in
housing prices have a negative impact on the consumption,and the contraction from
the decline in