文档介绍：The Forces of Economic Growth:
A Time Series Perspective
Alfred Greiner
Center for Empirical Macroeconomics, Bielefeld University
. Box 100131, 33501 Bielefeld, Germany
Willi Semmler
Center for Empirical Macroeconomics, Bielefeld University,
. Box 100131, 33501 Bielefeld, Germany, and
New School University, 65 Fifth Avenue
New York City, NY 10003, USA
Gang Gong
School of Economics and Management
Tsinghua University, Bejing 100084, China and
Center for Empirical Macroeconomics, Bielefeld University
. Box 100131, 33501 Bielefeld, Germany
Contents
List of Figures vi
List of Tables ix
Preface x
1 Economic Growth in Historical Perspective 1
Historical Perspective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
New Growth Theory and Cross-Country Studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Time-Series Perspective and Econometric Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Further Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
2 Growth Models and Time-Series Evidence 25
Persistent Per Capita Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Scale Effects of Education and Knowledge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
Externalities and Increasing Returns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
i
CONTENTS ii
Other Sources of Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Appendix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
3 Externalities of Investment and Economic Growth 40
The Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Time-Series Evidence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
Extensions of the Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
Appendix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
4 Edu