文档介绍：Session 20 运筹学Operations Research 20-1
运筹学运筹学
Operations Research Operations Research 20 Decision analysis
20 Decision analysis A Prototype Example
¾ The PANY owns a tract of land that
¾ Decision analysis provides a framework and may contain oil. A consulting geologist has reported to
management that she believes there is 1 chance in 4 of oil.
methodology for rational decision making in this context.
¾ Because of this prospect,another pany has offered to
purchase the land for $90,000. However, Goferbroke is
¾ Decision analysis divides decision making between the
considering holding the land in order to drill for oil itself.
cases of without experimentation and with experimentation. ¾ If oil is found, pany’s expected profit will be
approximately $700,000. A loss of $100,000 will be incurred if
the land is dry (no oil). Table summarizes these data. This
company is operating without much capital, so a loss of
$100,000 would be quences of the various possible es.
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运筹学运筹学
Operations Research A Prototype Example Operations Research 20 Decision analysis
Decision Making without
Status of Decision Making without