文档介绍：贵金属投资技术分析英文版
贵金属投资技术分析英文版
PIE
P
I
E
sychology
ncentives
xpectations
Not
2
Agenda
The Barriers
Psychology
Incentives
The Evidence
Corporations
Investors/Investment managers
The Solution
Social context
A look at winners
Time arbitrage
3
Barriers to Long Term Thinking
Phenomenon Effect
Availability bias Accounting versus economic focus
Recency bias Betting on what has worked
Stress Creates a short-term focus
Agent/principal shift Agency costs
Incentives
Psychology
4
Corporations
Source: Brian J. Hall and Jeffrey B. Liebman, “Are CEOs Really Paid Like Bureaucrats?” NBER Working Paper 6213, October 1997; “2004 CEO Compensation Survey and Trends,” Wall Street Journal/Mercer Human Resource Consulting, May 2005; LMCM estimates.
1985
2005
CEO Compensation
1995
Tied to stock market
43%
Tied to stock market
1%
Tied to stock market
60%
5
Corporations
“Earnings are in a class by themselves”
Four reasons:
Investors need a simple metric to summarize performance
EPS gets the broadest media distribution and coverage
Focus on EPS makes the analyst’s job easier
Analysts evaluate a firm’s progress based on making EPS
Source: John R. Graham, Campbell R. Harvey, and Shiva Rajgopal, “The Economic Implications of Corporate Financial Reporting,” NBER Working Paper, March 2004.
6
Firms are willing to sacrifice economic value in order to meet a short-run earnings target
The preference for smooth earnings is so strong that 78% of surveyed executives would give up economic value in exchange for smooth earnings!
EPS Obsession
Source: John R. Graham, Campbell R. Harvey, and Shiva Rajgopal, “The Economic Implications of Corporate Financial Reporting,” NBER Working Paper, March 2004.
7
Investors
From Principals to Agents
Individual investors
Financial institutions
1950
2000
Source: John Bogle, “The Relentless Rules of Humble Arithmetic,” Speech: 60th Anniversary Conference of the Financial Analyst Journal, February 10, 2005.
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