文档介绍：华中科技大学
硕士学位论文
电气设备状态维修策略研究
姓名:江伟
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:电力系统及其自动化
指导教师:罗毅
20061025
摘要
电力系统的设备维修策略逐渐从以时间周期为基础的定期维修制度向以设备状
态为基础的状态维修制度过渡,并取得了一定的成效。但由于对状态维修的定义及含
义见仁见智,电气设备的状态维修在我国至今仍主要停留在学术讨论范围,且欠缺对
状态维修策略的完整的探讨。本文在现有研究的基础上,着重对状态维修所涉及的关
键技术展开系统的研究。
论文首先回顾了国内外电气设备状态维修研究和应用的现状,分析了现有研究存
在的一些误区及缺陷;将实施状态维修的关键技术概括为状态监测技术、状态预测技
术及状态评估技术并阐述了它们的意义;理清了状态维修与在线监测及故障诊断的关
系。
论文分别从安全性和经济性的角度确定了状态维修所需的状态监测间隔期。采用
时间序列分析方法预测电气设备状态,针对设备特征量序列的周期性和趋势性,建立
了合适的 ARIMA 模型对该非平稳序列进行分析和预测。通过对某变压器油中气体含
量的实例预测验证了模型的有效性。论文确定了指示设备状态的静态指标和动态指
标,针对现有的电气设备状态评估方法存在的固有缺陷,提出了基于变权综合理论的
新的状态评估方法,构造了强局部惩罚-激励型状态变权函数对某变压器的状态进行
了实例评估。在此基础上,给出了电气设备状态维修决策的建议决策依据及对应的维
修手段。论文还分别讨论了理想的及非理想的预防性维修对电气设备可靠性的影响,
比较了定期维修和状态维修对设备可靠性影响的异同。
最后对本文所做工作做了总结,指出文中研究的不足并对今后的研究方向进行了
展望。

关键词:电气设备状态维修可靠性时间序列分析变权综合
I
ABSTRACT
The maintenance strategy of electrical equipments has gradually being changed from
Time-based Maintenance (TBM) to Condition-based Maintenance (CBM). Although some
effects have been achieved, the CBM strategy of electrical equipments is sticked in
academic area in China because of the different understandings of the definition and
signification of CBM. Moreover, some integrated discussions and researches of CBM
strategy is wanting at the present time. Based on the existing researches, this paper does
some systemic research on the key techniques of CBM chiefly.
Firstly, this paper generalizes the academic and practical status of domestic and
foreign Condition-based Maintenance strategy of electrical equipments. Some mistakes and
bugs of present researches are analyzed. The key techniques of CBM are generalized to
condition monitoring technique, condition forecasting technique and condition assessment
technique. The function of each technique is expatiated, while the connections among CBM,
online monitoring and fault diagnosis has been made clear.
Security-based and economy-based methods for confirming the time interval of
condition monitoring in CB