文档介绍：企业并购与重组--3 张学勇 zxy_616@ ********** What drives merger waves? ? Jarrad Harford ? University of Washington Business School, Box 353200, Seattle, WA 98195- 3200, USA Abstract ? Aggregate merger waves could be due to market timing or to clustering of industry shocks for which mergers facilitate change to the new environment. ? This study finds that economic, regulatory and technological shocks drive industry merger waves. ? Whether the shock leads to a wave of mergers, however, depends on whether there is sufficient overall capital liquidity . ? This macro-level ponent causes industry merger waves to cluster in time even if industry shocks do not. ? Market-timing variables have little explanatory power relative to an economic model including this ponent. ? The contemporaneous peak in divisional acquisitions for cash also suggests an economic motivation for the merger activity. Introduction ? Recent debate about the cause of merger waves has highlighted the fact that merger waves are correlated with high stock market valuations . ? Authors such as Shleifer and Vishny (2003) and Rhodes- Kropf and Viswanathan (2004) develop models in which merger waves result from managerial timing of market overvaluations of their firms. ? More neoclassical explanations of merger waves, dating at least to Gort (1969) and more recently examined by Mitchell and Mulherin (1996), argue that merger waves result from shocks to an industry ’ s economic, technological, or regulatory environment. ? This study asks whether a clustering of mergers at the aggregate level is due to a combination of industry shocks for which mergers facilitate change to the new environment, or whether such clustering is due to market timing. ? The results presented here support a neoclassical explanation of merger waves: merger waves occur in response to specific industry shocks that require large scale reall