文档介绍：1 kangying0068@ 浑河沈阳段突发性水污染事故预测模拟研究康利荥 1 , 徐景阳 1 (1. 沈阳市环境监测中心站,辽宁沈阳 110015) 摘要:通过对沈阳市浑河流域水环境的调查,基于Mike11 与EFDC 建立浑河流域沈阳段水动力-水质耦合模型,并对突发污染事故进行模拟研究。研究表明,MIKE11 与 EFDC 模型应用于浑河流域的预警模型在率定期和验证期的模拟结果均良好, 所确定的参数能准确反映河道特征。因此,此预警模型可应用于浑河流域突发性水环境风险应急预测,并且能够对浑河污染物迁移转化过程进行准确模拟预测,模拟结果能够为区域水资源管理和保护提供技术支持,达到流域应急预警功能需求。关键词: 浑河流域;突发性水污染事故;水质预警模型;MIKE11;EFDC;情景模拟 Forecasting and warning the Hun river of accidental water pollution effect based on MIKE11 and EFDC Kang Liying 1 , Ji Wenjuan 2, Xu Jingyang 1 ( environmental monitori ng central station, Shenyang, Liaoning 110015, China; 2. School of Municipal and Environmental Engineering, Shenyang Jianzhu University, Shenyang, Liaoning 110168, China ) Abstract: According to survey water environment of Hun river in Shenyang City, which based on Mike11 EFDC to establish the Hun river of Shenyang segment hydrodynamic water quality coupled model and simulate Hun river of Shenyang burst pollution accident. The results showed that the warning model forecasts accurately for calibration periods and the verification periods which based on MIKE11 and , the determined parameters can accurately reflect the river warning model can be applied to a accidental water environment risk emergency predict in Hun rive r,and accurately forecasts simulation of the transformation process of Hun river pollutant simulation results can provide technical support for the protection and management of regional water resources management, to reach the watershed emergency warning functional requirements. 突发性水污染事故一般是由人为或者自然灾害引起,使高浓度有害污染物突然进入水体,导致水质恶化, 影响水资源的有效利用,使社会、经济的正常活动受到严重影响,水生态环境受到严重危害[1] 。近年来,我国突发性水污染事故进入到高发期[2-3] 。所以,有必要建立起突发性环境污染事故预警应急系统,对突发性环境污染事故产生的环境污染、生态破坏进行识别,通过监测分析警源和警情变化,利用预警模型确定其变化趋势及速度,预先对某种长期或者突发性环境警情进行警报以保证环境安全,具有巨大的社会、经济效益和现实意义。国内外研究学者对河段水动力及水质模型进行了大量的研究[4-6] ,但是有关水量水质耦合模型应用于水体污染事故预警的研究尚不多见。随着地理信息系统 2 ( GIS )的快速发展,耦合 GIS 的突发性水污染事故预警应急系统的技术在水环境领域的应用不断得到加强[7-8] 。然而,预测模型常被