文档介绍：展可持续性仅达到“稍好"水平。综合得出成都市城市的发展处于弱不可持续状态。(3)根据成都市城市发展可持续性的现状及发展趋势,提出以下几点建议:在维持人们生活水平的前提下,减少生态赤字,缓解经济、社会发展对生态环境造成的压力;积极开发后备土地资源,建立健全耕地保护制度,保持耕地的动态平衡;改善农业生产基础条件,提高农业综合生产能力,减小产品生产对土地的压力;继续严格控制人口规模,努力提高人口素质;优化产业结构,加强技术创新,大力发展污染小、低耗能的第三产业;高效利用现有资源存量,建立资源节约型的社会生产和消费体系; 开发水电、太阳能、生物能源等无碳资源,减少化石能源消费,从而减少经济发展对能源的依赖性;实现区域经济、社会、生态的可持续发展。关键词:生态足迹;城市可持续发展;土地资源;对策;成都市 AB STRACT The sustainability ofChengdu city’Sdevelopment was studied through ecological footprint theory and sustainable development evaluation model relation between ecological footprint value per capita and itsmain influencing factors was also analyzed,and thedeveloping trend ofecological footprint inthe future was predicted by themodel established on thebaseofthechanging characteristics bined with the theories of municipal sustainable development,the intrinsic relations among ecological,economical,and socialaspects ofsustainability ofChengdu City’S development were further studied,and the countermeasures results showed as follow: (1)The ecological footprint value per capita ofChengdu City increased slowly in recent 20 years(1987-2006),it increased from hmz to the consumption ofenergy sources inithad thelargestproportion(%of theecological footprint ,the landecological carrying capacity per capita slowly dropped hm2 inthesame thecultivated landhad the largest contribution proportion(6 %of land ecological carrying capacity).The ecological deficitper capita increased from ratioofdemand and supply ofecological footprint was :1,and thisintense contradiction indicated the severe situation oftheecology inChengdu City. According tothevalue and trendchanging characteristics ofChengdu City’S municipal ecological footprint from 987 to2001,ARIMA(2,1,2)model was established topredict theecological footprint ofChengdu from 2002 fittingprecision was %,its difference randomly distribu