文档介绍：中文摘要摘要:在国民经济核算中,消费是与投资和净出口并列的拉动经济增长的“三驾马车”之一。近年来,消费和消费结构的发展越来越引起各级政府和社会的关注。消费结构是指在一定的社会经济条件下,消费主体各种具体消费内容的构成及其组合方式、相互关系和动态变化状态,是各种消费在总消费中所占的比重。居民消费结构可以表明一个国家对城镇居民的物质文化生活需要的满足程度,它是反映一个的综合指标。消费结构受多种因素的影响和制约,人均GDP和居民收入是主要因素。本论文采用定性分析与定量分析相结合的研究方法和思路,对消费结构发展进行研究,并采用功效函数、灰色预测法和BP神经网络建立模型对北京城镇居民消费结构的未来发展趋势进行预测,进而对消费结构优化和政府扩内需政策提出建议。论文首先介绍了研究背景及意义、国内外消费结构的研究情况;其次,分析了北京城镇居民消费结构现状,并与发达国家和城市进行比对,实证研究了消费市场变化趋势、影响消费结构的主要因素。随后过建立关联发展度综合评价模型对经济一收入一消费结构的关联发展水平进行定量评价,运用BP神经网络预测模型对消费结构发展趋势和消费热点进行测算。最后,提出优化消费结构,扩大北京居民消费的对策建议。关键词:消费;消费结构;经济发展;居民收入;关联发展性;结构升级分类号 j匕豆銮通太堂亟±堂僮i金塞△旦墨!&△￡! ABSTRACT ABSTRACT: Under national economic accounting, consumption, together wim inVestment export,are considered asthetroikapulling t11eeconomic recent years,the deVelopment ofconsumption and its structure isattracting more and more attention f而m thegoVemment aIldsociety one ofbasic economic actiVity inhumall society’consumption ist11ebehaVior and theprocess toconsume certainrealisticobj ects inorder tomeet strLlcture bination, correlation a11ddyn锄ic status of various speci6c contents of consunlption,aS well asisme perCentage ofeach content intotalconsumption,under certain social aIldeconomic consumption s们】cture can indicate thesatisfactionde黟ee ofmeeting urbanresidents’demalldformaterial aIldculturallife, aJld itisalsotheindicator of anation’seConomic deVelopment leVelaIld itsmaterial锄d cultural liVing consumption s缸1lctllreisconstrained by the levelof economic deVelopment,the铲owtll ofper capita GDP and e would cenainly promote thegro、)l,th ofconsumption,which could tllenineVitably leads tothe rationalization ofconsumption s缸ucture a11dt11e孕adual inc陀ase ofconsumption 1evels, a11dhence,me economic deVelopment aIldindustrialresmJctudng would bestimulated inrI加m. Staning舶m tlleresearchbackgroulld,Ⅱlis mesisrefIe玎ed tomeexisting a11d releVaJlt researchmat舐als,using qualitative锄d quaIltitative me