文档介绍：EQUITY RESEARCH
October 26, 2004
CHINA
Utilities
Huadian Power International (HK$ ) 1 - Overweight Asia Utilities
Change in mendation Ivan Lee, CFA
The winner in 2005
@
Investment Conclusion FY Dec 2003A 2004E 2005E 2006E
Currency RMB Actual Old New Old New Old New
The end of Shandong’s oversupply, rock-bottom
Revenue (m) 8, 10, 10, 12, 12, 14, 14,
plant utilisation, strong capacity growth, and more
Net Profit (m) 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1,
low-cost ing online have convinced us to
EPS FY
e more positive on Huadian.
EPS growth (%) -
DPS
Summary P/E (x)
Fuel cost risk may be fading, but risk of imminent Div. yield (%)
oversupply is increasing due to extra supply from
“unregulated” projects under construction.
Huadian is well-positioned to hedge against the Market Data Financial Summary
oversupply risk given its rock-bottom plant Market Cap HK$ (m) 13,797 Proj 5-Yr EPS Grth (%)
utilisation, more low-cost ing on board, Shares Outstanding (m) 5, ROE 03A (%)
competitive tariff, and strong capacity growth. Dividend Yield (%) BVPS 03A RMB
Factoring in a greater FY04 unit fuel cost rise, to Convertible No Debt-to-Capital 03A (%)
% from 17%, FY04 EPS are % below Share per ADR - EV/EBITDA Rel. to 5-Yr
consensus, while FY05’s are % higher. Disclosure(s) EBITDA CAGR
FY05 consensus EPS forecasts are climbing.
Management style on a change, transparency has Stock Overview
25/10/04x10-4
been improving; outperforming lately. Reuters
Target raised to HK$ (14x FY05E PER). Bloomberg 1071 HK
ADR -
HSCE 4,
Performance 1M 3M 12M
Company Rating Target (H