文档介绍：Cross-modity StrategyPrinted Circuit Board (PCB)
Andy ILL
modity Manager
March 2003
AGENDA
GLOBAL PRINTED CIRCUIT BOARDS TEAM
PERSONNEL
SECTOR
Andy ILL
modity PCS
Ken Kook
PCS (America N and S)
Ejnar Madsen
PCS (Europe)
Alvin Chan
PCS (ASIA)
Kirit Shah
iDEN
Simon Leach
CGISS-iDEN
Michael Marble
BCS
DQ Ren
GTSS
Fred Henderson
IESS- ACES
Rick Enlow
IESS- MCG
Katia Sarley
MCIS admin.
Takano Yutaka
Japan support
Chee Boon Yong
CCA analyist
Demand
Unpredictable events
Specific end market demand
Handsets
Cable modems
Automotive
Supply
Total available capacity
Capacity utilization
Raw materials
Lead-times
Consolidation of suppliers
Commodity & Industry Outlook (CCA)
Factors Affecting Price Trends
DEMAND
Iraq: Tom Davis (Motorola economist, ATD001), Jan ’03, on modity markets:
“The moment that the situation in Iraq begins to resolve itself (meaning speedy resolution), bination of higher confidence and available funds (due to panies' increased profits over the last three quarters) should mean that we would see something of a surge in spending. That, combined with the lack of investment in production capacity over the last year-plus, could kick us into a supplier's market very quickly -- even faster than I had thought.”
“If we somehow end up in a prolonged conflict in Iraq, that could prolong the current economic situation and theoretically even kick off a global recession.”
Oil prices may be driven up & in turn trigger a recession (reduced demand)
North Korea: could potentially escalate into wider issues
Unpredictable Events
Electronics industry
In turn, macro-economic factors & semiconductor industry are strong indicators of electronics industry health
PCB Demand Linked to …
iSuppli
Market has shrank from 2000 to 2002
Prismark: market expected to grow in 2003 on back of electronics recovery
Prismark
Market estimated to grow %, in an environment of depressed prices due to over capacity
Downward trend-line
WW PCB Market Valu