文档介绍：山西农村居民消费结构的分析与预测摘要近年来,随着社会经济的持续快速发展,我国已然成为世界第二大经济体,但是我们也应该清醒认识到,我国经济发展速度已放缓,经济发展已遇到瓶颈,故我国经济已到了必须改革的节点,而现如今消费是促进经济发展的原动力,所以分析并优化消费结构、促进消费结构升级对于促进我国经济发展有重要意义,消费结构的优化升级能大幅促进消费需求的增长,而我国是农业大国,农村人口众多,消费结构调试升级的重点应该放在农村。山西是经济欠发达的内陆省份,又是农村居民占有较大比重的省份,改革开放以来,山西农村居民消费水平有了显著提高,但是应当看到山西农村居民目前总体消费水平仍然较低,与党的党的十八大报告中提出的全面建成小康社会要求尚有较大距离。借着党的党的十八大的东风,通过加快城镇化的速度来促进山西农村居民消费结构优化升级、扩大内需拉动经济发展是推动山西农村经济发展的强动力方向,所以加快城镇化建设、加强深化富农惠农政策、提高潜在消费需要转化为现实有效需求的力度,对于提高山西农村居民生活水平、推动山西经济健康发展、加快山西全面建成小康社会步伐有重大意义,这也是党政领导和社会各界普遍关注的现实问题。本文以山西省农村居民为研究对象,以消费结构作为切入点,以消费经济理论基础为指导,通过扩展线性支出系统模型以山西省农村居民分别与山西省城镇居民、全国农村居民消费结构进行比较分析,采用灰色预测模型预测2012-2016年山西省农村居民消费结构的变化,在研究结论的基础上提出优化山西农村居民消费结构的对策建议。关键词:山西农村居民,消费结构,扩展线性支出系统模型,灰色预测Analysis and forecaston the consumption structure of Shanxi ruralresidentsAuthor:HaoJunni Supervisor:LiJinhongAbstractIn recent years, with the sustained and rapid development of social economy, China has e the second largest economy in the world, but weshould also be aware of that China's economic growth rate has slowed down, the economic development has encountered the bottleneck, so the economy has reacha nodetoreformnecessarily, and now the consumption is the driving force to promote the economicdevelopment,so analysising and optimizingthe consumption structure, promotingthe upgrading of the consumption structure has important significance in promoting China's economic development, optimization and upgrading of the consumption structure can greatly promote the growth of consumer demand, while China is a large agricultural country with large rural population, consumption structure upgrade debugging should focus on rural areas. Shanxi is economically underdeveloped inland province, and rural residents account for a large proportion of the provinces in China, since the reform and opening up, the level of consumption of rural residents in Shanxi has been significantly improved, but we