文档介绍：??????????????????????????一375ARIMA模型和控制图法结合的初步研究?????????????????????。396讨论?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????.???????????????????????????.????????????????????????????????????????????????.427结论??????????????????????????????????????????????????44致j射?????????????????????????????...?????????????????????.45参考文献????????????????????????????????????..46攻读硕士学位期间发表的学术论文?????????????????????????52CONTENTSCONTENTSAbstractinChinese???????????????????????????????????????????IAbstractinEnglish?????????????????????????????.?????????????III1Introduction......????????????????????????????????????????????1Theoverviewofswinepasteurellosis??????????????????????????????.1Theepidemicityandhazardsofswinepasteurellosis??????????????????????2Researchsituationofthepredictionandearlywarningmethod??.??????????????3Theintroductionofpredictionandearlywarningmethod????????????????..3ResearchsituationoftheapplyingofARIMAmodelandcontrolchart?????????..5Thepurposeandsignificanceofthesubject????????????????????????。10Thepurposeofthesubject?????????????????????????????????10Thesignificanceofthesubject??????????????????????????????..102MaterialandMethod???????.????????????????????????????????..12Experimentalmaterial??????????????????????????????????????12Dataofepidemicsituationofswinepasteurellosis???????????????????????????????????????????????????...?????????????????.?????????????.13Researchmethod???????.????????????????????.?????????????14TheprincipleandmethodofARIMAmodel???????????????????????.???????????.?????????????.183ThepreliminarystudyofARIMAmodelinswinepasteurellosis???????????????.22Thebasicsituationofswinepasteurellosismonthlyincidence???????????????????????????????.??????????????????????.24Stationaryseries?????.?.????????????.?????.????????.???