文档介绍：Technological Forecasting & Social Change
71 (2004) 141–159
Disruptive technology roadmaps$
Ronald N. Kostoff a,*, Robert Boylanb,1, Gene R. Simonsc,2
aOffice of Naval Research, 800 North Quincy Street, Arlington, VA 22217, USA
bUniversity of North Florida, Coggin College of Business, 4567 Street John’s Road, Jacksonville, FL 32224, USA
cLally School of Management and Technology, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY 12180, USA
Received 21 January 2002; received in revised form 1 April 2003; accepted 7 April 2003
Abstract
Disruptive technologies create growth in the industries they rate or create entirely new industries
through the introduction of products and services that are dramatically cheaper, better, and more
convenient. These disruptive technologies often disrupt workforce participation by allowing
technologically unsophisticated individuals to enter and petitive in the industrial workforce.
Disruptive technologies offer a revolutionary change in the conduct of processes or operations.
Disruptive technologies can evolve from the confluence of seemingly diverse technologies or can be a
result of an entirely new technological investigation. Existing planning processes are notoriously poor in
identifying the mix of sometimes highly disparate technologies required to address the multiple
performance objectives of a particular niche in the market. For a number of reasons, especially the
inability to look beyond short-term profitability, and the risk/return tradeoff of longer term projects, it is
suggested that current strategic planning and management processes promote sustaining technologies at
the expense of disruptive technologies.
We propose a systematic approach to identify disruptive technologies that is realistic and operable and
takes advantage of the text mining literature. This literature-based discovery process is especially useful
in identifying potential disruptive technologies that may require the input from many