文档介绍：International Journal of Project Management 19 (2001) 445–455
ate/ijproman
Strategizing for anticipated risks and turbulence in large-scale
engineering projects
Serghei Floricel*, Roger Miller
University of Quebec, Montreal, PO Box 6192, Downtown Station, Montreal, Quebec, Canada, H3C 4R2
Received 1 December 2000; received in revised form 2 February 2001; accepted 5 June 2001
Abstract
Large-scale engineering projects face an increasingly turbulent environment, which limits the validity of traditional planning
approaches. Using the grounded theorising method, based on 60 project cases, we elaborate a conceptual framework for project
strategic systems. Based on the distinction between anticipated but uncertain risks, and unexpected events produced by environ-
mental turbulence, we develop the notions of system robustness and, respectively, governability. paring the features and
performance of mon types of project, we show that achieving high project performance requires strategic systems that are
both robust with respect to anticipated risks and governable in the face of disruptive events. # 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd and
IPMA. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Large-scale projects; Turbulence; Risk
1. Introduction these new conditions, we propose a conceptual frame-
work and a series of propositions regarding the strategic
For many years, the project-management field has approaches for dealing with turbulence. We will try to
been oriented toward the long-range operational show that the only viable approach is to emphasise the
planning of projects. This paradigm assumed an strategic shaping of projects, starting very early in the
environment in which the range of issues facing a project life cycle, to both prepare for anticipated risks
project was more or less constant and current quan- and develop the ability to react in the face of disruptive
titative trends could be easily extrapolated into the events.
future. However, in the last 20 yea