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BAYESIAN DECISION ANALYSIS
Bayesian decision analysis supports principled decision making plex but structured domains.
The focus of this textbook is on the faithful representation and conjugate analyses of discrete decision
problems. It takes the reader from a formal analysis of simple decision problems to a careful analysis
of the sometimes plex and data rich structures confronted by practitioners. The book contains
basic material on subjective probability theory and multiattribute utility theory, event and decision
trees, works, influence diagrams and causal works. The author demonstrates
when and how the theory can be essfully applied to a given decision problem, how data can be
sampled and expert judgements elicited to support this analysis, and when and how an effective
Bayesian decision analysis can be implemented.
Evolving from a third-year undergraduate course taught by the author over many years, all of
the material in this book will be accessible to a student who pleted introductory courses in
probability and mathematical statistics.
jim q. smith is a Professor of Statistics at the University of Warwick.
BAYESIAN DECISION ANALYSIS
Principles and Practice
JIM Q. SMITH
University of Warwick
CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS
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Cambridge University Press
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Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York
Information on this title: 0521764544
© J. Q. Smith 2010
This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception
and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements,
no reproduction of any part may take place without
the written permission of Cambridge University Press.
First published 2010
Printed in the United Kingdom at the University Press, Cambridge
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