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USAutomotiveMarket:Slowing,butStilltheLargest
(downbymorethan3%fromthealltimehighin2000).TheUSmarketforlighttrucksandSUVs()surpassedthecarmarketin2002().
ThelowlevelofUSfueltaxesboostedSUVsalesfarmorethaninanyothercountry,althoughrisingoilpricesandenvironmentallegislationcouldreducesales.
In2002,roughlyone-fifthofthecars,,accountingforroughly13%ofthetotal.
TheUSindustry,regardlessofitshighnumbers,,theUShasmorecarsperheadthantheUnitedKingdom,butslightlyfewerthanItalyandGermany.
,000kmperyear,comparedto6,000kminWesternEuropeand4,000kminJapan.
Big3ContinuetoLoseMarketSharetoJapan
Astheautomotiveindustrygetsmorecompetitive,,,whiletheBigThreemanufacturers(GM,Ford,DaimlerChrysler),whendomesticmanufacturersstartedtolosenearly10pointsofshare,andtheJapanesegainednearly5.
Industry-wide,carandlight-%throughJune,,thethreebiggestJapanesemanufacturerssold100,000morevehicles,andthedomesticBigThreesold200,000fewer.
MarketshareforallJapanesebrandsisatanall-%,%.
TheeconomicdownturnhasfavoredautomakerslikeToyotasinceconsumershavebecomemorestingyanddiscriminatingwiththeirpurchases,thusfavoringqualityandvalue,whicharethemajorsellingpointsformostJapaneseautomakers(versus,forexample,luxuryautos).
,incentivesforChrysler,FordandGMaveraged$3,389pervehicle,versus$1,$1,371andEuropeanbrandsaveraged$1,945.
USCar/
Source:TheEconomist,June2003
Big3ContinuetoLoseMarketSharetoJapan
TheBig3’sincentives(14%ofsaleprices)-,ToyotaandGMcarscanbevirtuallyidentical(sometimesmadeonthesameassemblylineaspartofaGM-Toyotajointventure),butbecauseGMsellsintheused-carmarketfor15-20%lessthanToyota,2GMroutinelyofferspurchaseincentivesof$1,000acar,fourtimesmorethanToyota’
,thisfocusdoesn’,testsratethecar’scomponentsbutwithlessemphasisontheperformanceoftheentirecarasmeasuredbythedesiredattributes(suchasquietness).Conversely,,forexample,istestedextensivelyforthreekeyattributes:fuelefficiency,initialproductquality,-freesubsystems;itisacarthatperformswellintheareasthatcustomershavecometoexpectfromHonda.
,forexample,offersafulllineofvehiclescomparabletoFordorChevrolet,andithasarangeofmodelsintheLexusluxurydivisionthatincludessedans,SUVs,andsportscars.
,Hondaaverages$1,581inprofitpervehicle(soldintheUS)andToyotagets$1,,however,earnsonly$701whileChryslerGroupmakesonly$$114oneachvehiclesoldlastyear.
GlobalAutomotiveIndustry:MarketSharebyRevenue
Theglobalautomotiveindustryishighlyconcentratedwhilemarketshareisshifting.
DaimlerChrysler,FordMotor,andGeneralMotorsmakeup44%,thisisonepercentlessthanlastyear,indicatingtheBig3’slossofmarketsharetosmallercompetitors.
WhileToyotahasgreatlyincreaseditsmarketshareintheUS,thecompanyhasalsolostapercentageofmarketsharesincelastyear.
ImportstoNorthAmericaarethehighestthey’vebeensincethelate80’,lighttrucksales,oncethemajorprofitgenerator,arelosingsharetoforeigncompetitorslikeToyotaandNissan.
Source:StandardAndPoors,2003
IndustryProfitabilitySeverelyPressured
,thesestrategieshaveseriouslypressuredprofits.
DaimlerChryslerreportedinJuly2003thatnetincomefellworsethanithassincetheindustry’slastpoorearningsperiodinlate2001.
Mitsubishipromotedeasycredit,includingloansthatdeferredpaymentsforayeartoconsumerswithweakcreditbuthaverecentlyrescindedthispromotionduetoprofiterosion.
PSA’sprofitwashitmostlyduetotheriseoftheEuro,especiallyagainsttheBritishPoundandBrazilianReal,Brazilbeingwhereithasoneplant.
Someautomakersareattributingthisspanofpoorearningstothebottomofthecurrentcycleofslowdown,howevermanyarestillseekingstructuralimprovementsandbetterpricingpowertobufferthiscycle.
Company
EarningsStatus
Issues
GeneralMotors
Operatingprofitfell87%,AnnouncedearningsAugust8,2003
IntenseUSpricewarseverelypressuredprofits
DaimlerChrysler
Secondquarter2003operatingprofitfell62%
Chryslerlosses,USpricewar,Mercedessalesslacking
Renault
Operatingprofitfell€
Globalsalesdecline(%)infirsthalf;adversecurrencymoves
PSAPuegotCitreon
Operatingprofitsinautodivisiondown27%infirsthalf2003
Strongeuro,weakFrenchdemand
Volkswagen
€400millionoffitspretaxprofit,announcedMay2003
Foreign-exchangemoves,weakEuropeansales
Mitsubishi
Forecasting$674MnetlossasofJuly2003
USsalesdown20%;anticipates$420Mchargeforbadcarloans
Ford
96%dropinoperatingprofitinmidJulyannouncements
$525MlossatFordofEurope,USpricewar
Source:WallStreetJournal,EarningsReports
AutomakersStillPooratAligningSupplyandDemand
,.
Inrecordsalesyears(suchas2001),%andonlythreecompanies—BMW,HondaandMagnaInternational-had5%profit.
,demandforDaimler’,,furthererodingthemodel’simage.
,ofabout10-15%,thefactoryhastoraiseorlowervolumesuddenly.
In2002saleswerethelowestinfouryears,$$3Band$11B,respectively,everyyearonadvertisements.
Theloopfromproductionplanningtomanufacturetosaleandbacktakesupto6months,,intensecompetitionandmorerapidlyshiftingconsumertastes,thispooralignmenthasbeenmoreobviousintheindustrythanever.
Automakersarestillapplyinglastyear'ssalesresultstothecurrentyear’spre-plannedvolumewithoutconsiderationofhowmanydaysittooktosellspecificvehicles.
USAutomotiveDistribution:InefficientNetwork
DealersaccountfornearlyallUScarandcommercial-vehiclesales,,itispossibletoreshapedealernetworksbyorchestratingaseriesofownershipchanges,encouragingweakperformerstoexitthemarket,helpingtopperformerstoexpand,andencouragingdealerstoimprovesalesskills. Giventightprofitmargins,manufacturerscandefinitelyusetheextraprofitthatamoreefficientdistributionsystemcoulddeliver.
-enhancingimprovements.
Manufacturershaveawardedfranchisestothousandsofindependentowner-operatorsrangingfromsmallfamilybusinessestolargescalenationalchains.
Onceadealershipopensforbusiness,themanufacturercan’texertmuchdirectcontroloveritandmustbecontent,essentially,-brandmanufacturersfacetheadditionalcomplicationofdealingwithseveraloverlappingnetworksthatworkagainstoneanother.
Adealerhassubstantialpowertoputamanufacturer’stopandbottomlinesatrisk—forexample,bycuttingbackitsinvestmentinfacilities,pushingthebrandsofcompetitors,orpursuingfewerbuthigher-marginsalesattheexpenseofthemanufacturer’svolumegoals—therebyoptimizingitsprofitsandunderminingthoseoftheOEM.
,dealershipshadsalesofmorethan$800billion—closeto100%ofthemanufacturers’-salespartsandservicesthatarefundamentaltotheirsuccess.
Source:McKinseyQuarterly,Strategy&Business,WallStreetJournal,EIU
USAutomotiveDistribution:InefficientNetwork
Factors
Issues
GeographicDistribution
Outletsmustbeclosetocustomersbutnottooclosetooneanother.
TheoncerobustnetworksoftheBig3werebuiltlargelyinthe1920s-1950sandhaven’.
DealerSales
Somedealersarebetteratrunningtheirbusinessesthanothersyetmanufacturerscannoteliminatepoorperformingdealerships.
Theexperienceofonemajormanufacturersuggeststhat,adjustingformarketsizeandlocation,dealersinthetopquartilesellthreetofourtimesasmanyvehiclesasdealersinthebottomquartile.
BusinessFormat
%oftheirfixed(andevenother)coststhroughpartsandservice.
’tsupportthecustomaryfullsalesandserviceoperation,dealershavenowayofprovidingservicebythemselves,4andthenetworkforfeitstensofbillionsofdollarstoindependentrepairshopsandthird-partypartsmakers.
Someautomakersestimatethattheycontrolnomorethan20%ofthetotalservicebusinessfortheircars(marginsonsparepartsareseveraltimeshigherthanthoseonnewcars).
BrandMix
Manufacturersgenerallywantdealerstosellonlyonebrandatagivenshowroomtocreatestrongbrandloyalty,sharpenidentity,,sellingtwoormorebrands,sometimesfromcompetingmanufacturers.
Single--branddealershipsmakesenseinmarketswhereasinglebrandcan’tgiveadealersustainablesalesvolumes.
SomeUSbrandsmightnotbeabletosurvivewithoutsharingshowroomswithastrongercomplementarybrand.
Source:McKinseyQuarterly,Strategy&Business,WallStreetJournal,EIU
USAutomotiveDistribution:InefficientNetwork
Statefranchiselawsandotherregulationsprotectdealersfrom“intrusive”,directownershipofdealersbymanufacturersisprohibitedoutright;inothers,manufacturerscan’tcloseorrelocatepoorlyperformingdealershipsandmustsettleforisolatedandrelativelysuperficialstore-levelimprovements(remodelingshowroomsorprovidingadditionalsalesandservicetraining).Ifthemanufacturerswereallowed,ma