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TransportationPlanning
BasicConsiderationofModalChoice
Thefactorsinfluencingthechoiceofmodesareusedasindependentvariablestobeincludedinmathematicalmodelsofmodalchoice.
Thedependentvariablebeingthemarketshareorthepercentoftravelersthatareexpectedtouseeachoftheavailablemodes.
Theplannerlooksathowthesecharacteristicsinteracttojointlyaffectthetripmaker'schoiceofmode.
Whentherelationshipshavebeendiscovered,theplannercanpredicthowthepopulationofthefuturewillchoosefromamongthemodesthatwillbeavailable.
TransportationPlanning
UtilityandDisutilityFunctions
Modalchoicehasarelationshipwiththeutility.
Theutility(ordisutility)functionistypicallyexpressedasthelinearweightedsumoftheindependentvariablesortheirtransformation:
Vistheutilityderivedfromachoicedefinedbythemagnitudes
oftheattributesXthatarepresentinthatchoiceandthatare
weightedbythemodelparametersa,parameterscanbe
estimatedbylinearregression,basedonactualchoiceresults.
TransportationPlanning
ExampleofDisutilityFunctions
Alinearutilityfunction:
Where
X1=in-vehicletraveltime
X2=monetarycost
X3=cost/income
X4=reliability
Bus
Auto
Indifferentcurve
Budgetcurve
TransportationPlanning
DiscreteChoiceAnalysis
Timecost
Monetarycost
TransportationPlanning
DiscreteChoiceAnalysis
Servicefare
Servicetime
快递公司
DiscreteChoiceFramework
Decision-Maker
-Individual(person/private/publicsector)
-Socio-economiccharacteristics(income,objectives)
Alternatives
-decision-makernselectsonefacingJnalternatives
setCn={1,2,…,Jn}withJnalternatives
Attributesofalternatives
-Traveltime,cost,reliability,safety….
Decisionrules
-Dominance,satisfaction,utilityetc.
TransportationPlanning
DiscreteChoiceAnalysis
ASimpleExample
Decision-maker:
anindividualtraveler
Choice:
whethertochoosetrainorbus
Alternatives:
train,bus
Utility:
-U(X)=a1*money+a2*time+a3*reliability
Decisionrules:
maximizeutility(choosethealternativethathasmaximumutility)
Result
IfU(train)>U(bus)->train
IfU(train)<U(bus)->bus
tastes
TransportationPlanning
DiscreteChoiceAnalysis
IfU(train)>U(bus)->trainProbability(train)=1
IfU(train)<U(bus)->busProbability(train)=0
TransportationPlanning
DiscreteChoiceAnalysis
ASimpleExample
Imperfectinformation
TransportationPlanning
DiscreteChoiceAnalysis
RandomUtilityModel