文档介绍：V. RISK CHARACTERIZATION
V. RISK CHARACTERIZATION
Risk characterization integrates information and data acquired during the hazard
identification, hazard characterization, and exposure assessment into an estimate of the
adverse effects likely to occur in a given population. In this risk assessment, the risk
characterization links the probability of exposure to L. monocytogenes from consumption of
foods in the 20 food categories with the adverse health es. This risk characterization
focuses primarily on a prediction of the relative probability of contracting listeriosis from
consumption of a single serving of food in one of the 20 food categories. Additional
predictions also consider the extent of annual consumption of the various foods and the
predicted contribution of each of the individual food categories to the number of listeriosis
cases nationally.
This risk assessment is based on contaminated foods at the retail level. The risk
characterization of the overall burden of listeriosis on public health includes both sporadic
(., illnesses not associated with a documented outbreak) and outbreak illnesses. Illnesses
attributed to documented outbreaks are a small proportion of the total estimated annual cases
of listeriosis. At this time it is not possible to separate the risk attributable to sporadic and
outbreak cases. Outbreaks frequently represent a breakdown in food production,
manufacturing, or distribution systems instituted to prevent L. monocytogenes contamination.
Assessing the likelihood that these systems will fail requires detailed information about the
manufacture of individual foods that is beyond the scope of this assessment.
Modeling
Because listeriosis is a rare event, straight Monte-Carlo modeling is unable to provide
adequate characterization of the tails of the distributions in the model. Therefore, the model
was divided into two ponents — the exposure assessment and the dose-adjustment
factors. Each of these portions