文档介绍：Complementarities between Exports and Human
Capital in Economic Growth: Evidence from
the Semi-industrialized Countries*
Andrew Levin
Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Lakshmi K. Raut
University of Hawaii at Manoa
I. Introduction
Export orientation and human capital investment have both received
widespread attention in the literature on economic growth. Over the past
several decades, numerous researchers have modeled exports as an en-
gine of economic growth, with the presumption that higher exports can
lead to greater capacity utilization, economies of scale, adoption of more
efficient technology, or higher foreign exchange in order to import supe-
rior capital goods and raw materials. Recently, R. E. Lucas, Jr., and
C. Azariadis and A. Drazen, among others, have built theoretical models
in which sustained long-run growth is driven by the human capital in-
vestment of optimizing This theoretical research has also
generated renewed interest in cross-country growth regressions designed
to evaluate the empirical significance of various structural and policy in-
dicators. In a recent review of the empirical literature, R. Levine and
D. Renelt analyzed the determinants of the average annual growth rate
of GDP per capita for a sample of 101 countries over the period 1960–
By applying the method of extreme bounds analysis,3 Levine and
Renelt demonstrated that the statistical significance of nearly every struc-
tural and policy indicator is highly sensitive to the inclusion of additional
explanatory variables. The only variables found to possess fairly robust
predictive power were the rate of investment, the growth rate of interna-
tional trade, and the initial level of real GDP per capita. However, two
critical issues have remained unresolved concerning the role of exports
and human capital in the determination of long-run economic growth.
First, while Levine and Renelt found a highly robust relationship
1997 by The Univ