文档介绍：NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES
FDI AND TRADE – TWO WAY LINKAGES?
Joshua Aizenman
Ilan Noy
Working Paper 11403
ers/w11403
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
June 2005
The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National
Bureau of Economic Research.
©2005 by Joshua Aizenman and Ilan Noy. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two
paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given
to the source.
FDI and Trade – Two Way Linkages?
Joshua Aizenman and Ilan Noy
NBER Working Paper No. 11403
June 2005
JEL No. F15, F21, F36, H21
ABSTRACT
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the intertemporal linkages between FDI and disaggregated
measures of international trade. We outline a model exemplifying some of these linkages, describe
several methods for investigating two-way feedbacks between various categories of trade, and apply
them to the recent experience of developing countries. After controlling for other macroeconomic
and institutional effects, we find that the strongest feedback between the sub-accounts is between
FDI and manufacturing trade. More precisely, applying Geweke (1982)’s position method,
we find that most of the linear feedback between trade and FDI (81%) can be accounted for by
Granger-causality from FDI gross flows to trade openness (50%) and from trade to FDI (31%). The
rest of the total linear feedback is attributable to simultaneous correlation between the two annual
series.
Joshua Aizenman
Department of Economics ; E2
1156 High St.
University of California
Santa Cruz, CA 95064
and NBER
******@
Ilan Noy
Department of Economics
Suanders 542, 2424 Maile Way
University of Hawaii, Manoa
Honolulu, HI 96822
******@
1
1. Introduction
A growing literature has recognized the existence of two-way feedbacks bet