文档介绍：Chapter 4: Predicting and Managing Supply
Chain Risks
Samir Dani
Wolfson School of Mechanical and Manufacturing, Loughborough University,
Loughborough, Leicestershire, LE113TU, UK
Introduction
Since the start of the new century the world at large has experienced escalating
uncertainty as a result of climate changes, epidemics, terrorist threats and an
increasing amount of economic upheaval. These uncertainties create risks for the
proper functioning of supply chains. This chapter provides an insight into deve-
loping a proactive approach to predict risks and manage uncertainties that may
potentially disrupt the supply chain.
The aim of the chapter is to present a holistic perspective regarding supply
chain risk management and incorporate a methodology to manage supply chain
risks proactively. When discussing supply chain risk issues with industry personnel
it was noticed that post 9/11, the issue of supply disruption had gained importance
within the industry. But the focus on managing these disruptions and sources of
these disruptions has been primarily reactive. Supply chain personnel in some
instances have remarked that they have in the past researched and presented to
their top management proactive risk management solutions which had been
subsequently rejected and no investment provided. There is now, however, an
increasing interest regarding proactive tools and hence this chapter seeks to
present a framework for implementing proactive risk management. The chapter
also suggests some tools which may prove useful in predicting supply chain risks.
The chapter begins by defining and discussing the concepts of Uncertainty and
Risk as suggested in the literature. A discussion regarding supply chain risks and
supply chain risk management leads on to the issues of proactive risk manage-
ment. The chapter then suggests the use of predictive methods for data gathering
54 Samir Dani
and analysis to aid the proactive