文档介绍：16 February 2009 Asia Economics Monthly
China A1/A+/A+
Moody’s/S&P/Fitch

Recent indicators point to a recovery of economic the average monthly lending from March-December will
activity in ing months. ary stimulus is have to decline to RMB320bn per month, down by more
much more powerful and front-loaded than fiscal than 70% from the Jan-Feb level.
stimulus at this moment.
We believe the surge in lending growth from December
Deflation risk eases. We expect this year’s average
will translate into a visible recovery of economic activity
grain price be 10-15% higher than last year. We lower
(on a qoq basis) – especially demand for raw materials –
our rate cut expectations.
from March-April. See our Jan 22 report for more details.
Recent indicators point to a recovery of economic
Cyclically adjusted fiscal stimulus is around 1% in
activities in ing months. Recent economic
2009. We expect the National People’s Congress to
indicators such as IP, power production, inventory, and
approve a central government deficit of around
PMI suggest that economic activities are recovering from
RMB650bn during its March plenary session. This is
the recent trough in November. In particular, the better-
slightly higher than our early expectation of RMB600bn. In
than-expected Jan PMI shows domestic demand will
addition, the central g