文档介绍：The Changing Housing Cycle and the
chapter3 Implications for ary Policy
This chapter examines how innovations in housing Dramatic changes in the systems of hous-
finance systems in advanced economies over the past ing finance over the past two decades have
two decades have altered the role of the housing sector only increased the uncertainty about the link
in the business cycle and in the ary policy trans- between housing and economic activity. What is
mission mechanism. It concludes that these changes clear is that more widely available and lower-
have broadened the spillovers from the housing sector cost housing financing has contributed to the
to the rest of the economy and have amplified their rapid growth of mortgage debt in a number of
impact by strengthening the role of housing as col- countries—including among households with
lateral. This analysis suggests that in economies with impaired or insufficient credit histories, typi-
more developed mortgage markets, ary policymak- cally referred to as subprime borrowers. What is
ers may need to respond more aggressively to develop- less clear is whether these changes have weak-
ments in the housing sector, within a risk-management ened the link between housing and the business
approach that treats house price dynamics as one of cycle.
the key factors to be considered in assessing the balance Some authors advanced the hypothesis that
of risks to output and inflation. these changes have weakened the link between
housing and the business cycle—for example,
he recent booms in house prices easier access to credit allows households to
and residential investment in many better smooth temporary downturns in e
advanced economies, and the sharp (Dynan, Elmendorf, and Sichel, 2006). Indeed,
correction that has followed in a few the economies that better weathered the cycli-
Tof them, have reignited the debate over the cal downturn in the early 2000s—such as the
lin