文档介绍：天堂寨景区旅游人数预测研究
摘要:旅游需求预测在旅游业的规划与经营过程中起着科学的指导作用,本文应用趋势外推模型的二次方程预测模型对天堂寨旅游景区游客量进行预测, 并且分析了该景区旅游需求的时空分布集中性。研究表明不同年份天堂寨景区的旅游季节性强度指数变化不大,旅游需求主要集中在春末到秋初这一时段。天堂寨景区客源地较少较集中,主要集中于安徽省内,省外客源地主要集中在江苏省。在未来几年内天堂寨景区旅游人数呈上升趋势,并在2012年达到30万人次以上。旅游区旅游市场开发潜力巨大,具有很好的发展前景。最后根据实际,提出天堂寨旅游景区的开发建议。
关键词: 旅游需求预测旅游需求的分布集中性趋势外推模型旅游人数
Study on prediction of number of Tiantangzhai tourist
Abstract: tourism demand forecast in the tourism planning and management plays a scientific guidance, this paper application trend extrapolation model of paradise quadratic equation prediction model village tourism scenic spots, and predict visits to analyze the scenic spot of the temporal and spatial distribution of tourism demand concentration. The conclusion is drawn that heaven village scenic area tourism seasonally intensity, tourism demand big changes in the time allocation is not very evenly and heaven its tourism source less relatively concentrated jingouzhai scenic spot. In the next few years, with the number of tourist arrivals heaven village scenic spot an upward trend in 2012, and more than 30 million or more. Tourist area development of tourism market potential is tremendous, have very good development prospect. Based on the result, proposed influence the development of village tourism scenic heaven suggestion.
Key words: Tourism demand forecasting The distribution of tourism demand concentration Trend ex