文档介绍：上海交通大学
硕士学位论文
世博会期间上海蔬菜供给问题研究
姓名:邹阳
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:农业经济与管理
指导教师:于冷
20080101
世博会期间上海蔬菜供给问题研究

摘要

2010 年上海世界博览会是第一次在发展中国家举办的世博会,世博
局等机构预测的结果显示,上海世博会的客流规模总量将达到 7500 万
人次。如此大规模的客流涌入势必会对上海市的蔬菜需求的猛增,同时
也对上海市蔬菜供给提出了新的要求。主要包括需求数量的大量增长、
质量安全要求的显著提高、流通效率的大幅提升。本文主要也从蔬菜供
给的数量、质量安全、流通这三个方面入手,寻求解决问题的有效途径。
在供给数量方面,通过一系列的回归分析,发现目前影响蔬菜供需
的主要因素包括自然情况、播种面积和人口数量;计算蔬菜总体和具体
品种各月、各季的弹性,得出市场上蔬菜的供给除了要针对不同的季节
协调配送,更要针对不同品种重点供应等结论;预测世博期间上海蔬菜
的需求数量,并从蔬菜种植方式、基地选择等方面提出相关对策。
在质量安全方面,结合博弈模型得出的结论,分析目前上海蔬菜质
量安全监管存在的问题;借鉴国内外重大活动中食品安全监管方面的经
验,构建蔬菜质量安全监控体系,并提出相关政策建议。
在蔬菜流通方面,对上海蔬菜的流通现状及存在问题作以论述,参
考发达国家先进经验,以保证世博会蔬菜供应为目标,提出“一个核心,
两种渠道、三大环节、三项保障”的概念模型,并设计了世博会蔬菜流
通的渠道,分别从供应环节、中间环节、零售环节作以具体规划,并就
政策导向、技术支持和营销战略方面提出保障机制。

关键词:世博会,蔬菜,质量安全,流通
RESEARCH ON SUPPLY OF VEGETABLE IN SHANGHAI
AT WORLD EXPO.

ABSTRACT

The 2010 Shanghai World Expo. is first held in developing country. It is
estimated that there’ll be 75 million ing into Shanghai, which has
an effect on the demand of vegetable. To aim at the supply of vegetable at
World Expo. ,the dissertation gives the analysis on quantity, quality and
safety, circulation of vegetable.
In the aspect of quantity, it concludes that the nature, land area and
quantity of inhabitants have a great influence on the supply and demand. It
also calculates the elasticity and advises that the vegetable supply should be
in accordance with the seasons and variety. It forecasts the demand of
vegetable at World Expo. and presents the counter-measurements about the
cultivation form and vegetable bases.
About the quality and safety, based on the game models, it takes into
consideration the developing practice, and establishes a supervision system
of the vegetable quality and security by drawing lessons from other activities
and exhibitions.
Finally, referring to the experiences of foreign countries and
considering the practice of circulation, the dissertation creates the
conception