文档介绍：上海交通大学
硕士学位论文
供应链管理中的预测与协调问题研究
姓名:徐涛
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:会计
指导教师:胡奕明
20090524
摘要

本文着重研究了供应链管理中预测与协调相关的理论与实践问题,
并对相应的解决方案进行了针对性地分析、探讨。
随着技术的进步、发展,新的管理方法不断涌现。其中,供应链及
供应链管理的出现,改变了传统的企业竞争方式:供应链之间的竞争将
取代传统的企业间的竞争模式,今后的竞争格局将是在供应链内部合
作,不同供应链之间相互竞争的竞合局面。作者在对供应链的概念系统
阐述的基础上,结合自己的实际工作经验,对供应链管理中预测与协调
问题进行了一些理论探究及实务操作的工作。
作者通过不同预测的方法、模型对上海西门子移动通信的预测效果
进行比较,得出当前运用预测方法更为合理的结论。同时,在对供应链
管理中协调的作用、意义进行较系统的阐述,结合自身的一些实际操作
实例,得出合理的协调能确保供应链良好运行这样的结论。最后,全文
总结出预测为先导,协调为保障的相关研究结论。

关键词:供应链;供应链管理;预测;协调;牛鞭效应;
THE STUDIES OF FORECAST AND COORDINATION
PROBLEMS IN SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT

ABSTRACT

This paper on supply chain management of forecast and coordination
raises both theoretical and practical issues and discusses the solutions
approach for them.
With the development of the technology, petition will be existed
among the different supply chains instead of the panies. Based
on the supply chain management concept, this paper discusses the details
about the forecast and coordination with the working practice experience.
The first part of this paper provides the strategic framework of the
supply chain management, explains the significance of forecast and
coordination in theoretical area. The following part describes the basic
models / methodologies to the forecast on historical demand data. It shows
that the sufficient coordination leads to an efficient way to the supply chain
system. With the case study of Siemens Shanghai munications
pany supply chain history, this paper analytically examines the
improvement of supply chain coordination through more effective
information exchange and consistent forecast. The discussion also includes
the various obstacles that faced by industrial users through supply chain, it
also displays the negative factors which impact the coordination of supply
chain and the related solutions via both practice and theory.

KEY WORDS: Supply chain; Supply chain management; Forecas