文档介绍：Friday 22 July 2005
China Lookout - Strategy

Riding the Rmb euphoria

Our sensitivity analysis shows a 2% Rmb revaluation would reduce
FY05F EPS of our China universe by %. Our top Rmb revaluation
plays are fixed-line operators, toll roads and retailers. Sell airlines,
China Mobile and Sinopec into the liquidity rally.

Table 1 : Top winners and losers of Rmb appreciation
China
Top Winners Stock Impact of 1% Top Losers Stock Impact of 1%

Rmb Rmb
Company Code pany Code appreciation
China Southern % Shenzhen Development Bank -%
HSCEI
China Eastern % Yizheng Chemical -%

Zhenhai Refining % China Minsheng Banking -%
I
Sinopec % COSL -%

Tsingtao Brewery % Huaxia Bank -%
Tingyi % CSCL -%
China model portfolio
CNAC % Singamas Container -%
Company Rec Target
Datang Power % PetroChina -%
Anhui Expressway Add HK$
China Resources % Shanghai Pudong Dev -%
BCIA Buy HK$
Huadian Power % Sinotrans -% China Life Insurance Buy HK$
Source: ABN AMRO estimates China Merchants AddHK$
China Resources Power Buy HK$

China Resources Enterprise AddHK$
China Buy HK$
Negative EPS impact basis, positive for liquidity OOC Buy HK$
Our sensitivity analysis shows a 2% Rmb revaluation would reduce FY05F EPS of our Kingway Brewery Buy HK$
Lianhua Supermarket Buy HK$
China universe by %, with EPS accretion for the airlines and power stocks more PetroChina Buy HK$
than offset by earnings declines for the oil and banking counters. But the positive Source: ABN AMRO
valuation impact on the discounted Rmb cash flows of most panies
under the new exchange rate regime should fuel a short-term liquidity rally of