文档介绍：中国经济结构调整及其动力研究1

李稻葵2,徐翔3

结构调整是中国经济当下最重要的核心问题之一。外部结构失衡体现于过高的贸易顺差,
内部失衡的表现则是居民消费比例过低。对于中国结构调整的进展,国内外学者的主流观点
是调整进展有限,结构失衡仍然严重。我们对这一判断提出质疑,我们认为中国经济结构已
经开始改善。我们的证据来自两点,一是贸易顺差正在迅速缩减,二是重新计算的居民消费
率的复苏。我们进而论述,结构改善的主要动力来自于市场机制,而非任何短期或刺激性政
策的驱动。即,迅速减少的农村剩余劳动力和不断提高的工资率使劳动收入占 GDP 比重不
断回升,并进一步推动居民可支配收入占 GDP 比重上升,这一趋势正是消费率出现 U 型回
升、结构改善的核心动力。因此,我们的结论是中国经济结构调整应该坚持市场化道路,让
市场机制更好地发挥作用。

关键词:结构调整居民消费劳动份额市场机制

1 我们感谢许宪春、王有捐和冯俊新对本文所做的有益的评论和建议。
2 清华大学经济管理学院金融系教授,电子邮箱 ******@. 100084
3 清华大学经济管理学院金融系博士生,电子邮箱 xux.******@. 100084
The Structural Change of the Chinese Economy
David D. Li
Sean Xiang Xu
School of Economics and Management
Tsinghua University

Abstract

In the paper, we examine the progress and mechanism of the structural change
of the Chinese economy. Contrary to the overwhelming view in the literature, we
provide evidence to show that the Chinese economy has made significant progress in
structural change since the global financial crises. We find that trade surplus as well
as current account balance as a share of GDP have steadily declined between 2007
and 2011. Moreover, using our new method of calculation, we show that private
consumption has been increasing steadily in the share of GDP, from 36% to %
during the same period. Finally, using regressions based on provincial data and
model simulation, we argue that a market mechanism rather than policy stimulus
was responsible for the structural change. That is, with diminishing surplus labor in
rural China, labor e as a share of GDP has been increasing, which drove up
private consumption and imports. The implication is very clear: China’s continued
improvement of economic structure should further draw power from market
mechanisms.
一、引言
进入新世纪以来,中国经济发展方式转变的问题成为全球瞩目的重大话题,而发展方式
转变的一个主要方面就是中国经济的结构必须调整。2008 年爆发的、至今仍然不断发酵的
金融危机逼着中国经济必须转变发展方式,调整经济结构。中国经济的结构是否正在改善,
中国经济结构改善的主要动力是什么。这是当今中国经济学界必须研究的重大课题,也是国
际经济学界以及政策界极为关注的重要话题。本