文档介绍：第6卷第4期交通运输系统工程与信息
2006 年 8 月 Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology August 2006
空中交通管理系统安全的灰色多层次综合评价
丁松滨,许松林
(中国民航大学无人机研究所,天津 300300)
摘要: 针对空中交通管理系统安全评价方法中存在的不足,根据系统工程的基本原则
和思路,以空中交通管理系统的人员、备、境和管理为基本因素,建立了空中交通安
全管理系统的评价指标体系,并结合层次分析与灰色理论,提出了空中交通管理系统安
全的多层次灰色评价模型,并结合实例进行了实例计算. 仿真计算结果表明该方法能
更有效地利用评价指标的信息,所给出的综合评价值不仅能用于描述所评价单位的安
全状况,还具有横向比较多个单位安全状态的功能,该方法具有较好的可操作性和实用
性,对更加科学合理地评价空中交通管理系统安全状态具有参考价值.
关键词: 灰色理论;安全评价;空中交通管理;层次分析法
中图分类号: U491
Multilevel prehensive Evaluation for
Safety of Air Traffic Management
( Research Institute of Unmanned Aircraft , China University of Civil Aviation , Tianjin 300300 , China)
Abstract : Aiming at the shortages of the method of evaluating safety for air traffic management system , this paper
establishes a index system based on system engineering principle and idea , where human , facility , environment
and managemet are considered as essential factors. bining with Analytical Hierarchy Process method and
grey theory ,this paper raises a multilevel prehensive evaluation model and gives an evaluate example. The
result shows that this method can make more efficiency use of index information , the prehensive evaluate
value not only describes the safety state but also can parison among units. This method is efficiency and
offers a good reference to more scientific safety evaluation for air traffic m