文档介绍：题目:我国前瞻性货币供给规则与宏观经济的稳定性
——拓展的MIU模型与中国经验
郭廓王博
Forward-Looking ary Supply Rule Applicable in China
and Macroeconomic Stability: Augmented MIU Model and China’s Experience
Guo Kuo Wang Bo
我国前瞻性货币供给规则与宏观经济的稳定性
——拓展的MIU模型与中国经验
郭廓王博
(南开大学金融系,天津,300071)
内容提要:国内研究货币规则的文献大多依据“损失函数最小化”标准获得货币政策工具的决策准则,而鲜有从一般均衡模型不动点性质的角度评析我国货币政策规则的文章。本文将一个适用于我国转型时期的货币量规则引入一般均衡的MIU模型,拓展了传统的固定货币增长率的货币经济学模型。文章发现:消费者微观偏好和央行货币政策参数会对宏观经济系统的稳定性产生影响,据此提出三个可供检验的命题。数据分析显示:我国经济系统获致的不动点为鞍点,即存在一条稳定的轨迹使经济系统收敛于均衡状态。文章建议,货币政策部门密切关注居民微观行为演进和央行货币规则微调对经济系统动态特性产生的影响。
关键词:前瞻性货币供给规则宏观经济稳定性消费者行为
Forward-Looking ary Supply Rule Applicable in China
and Macroeconomic Stability: Augmented MIU Model and China’s Experience
Guo Kuo Wang Bo
(Nankai University, Department of Finance, Tianjin, 300071)
Abstract: Most domestic literatures on ary rules are based upon the standard of "loss function minimization" to get access to the decision-making guidelines regarding ary policy tools. While, little article looks the problem concerning the assessment of China's ary policy rule from the angle of fixed point nature in the general equilibrium model. This paper introduces a ary policy patible with our transitional reform period into a general equilibrium MIU model, which is extended from the traditional fixed-money-growth-rate model. This article argues that: micro-parameters of Consumer preferences and the central bank's ary policy have great impact on macroeconomic stability. Furthermore, we put forward three testable propositions. According to macro-level data from China, we find that: Our economic system has a saddle-point equilibria, that is to say, there exists a stable trajectory that the economy will converge to this equilibria. The paper suggests that our ary policy-makers should pay close attention to the micro-behavior evolution of our residents and the ary regime changes, which will have significant impact on the dynamic characteristics of our economy.
Key Words: Forward-Looking ary Supply Rule; Macroecon