基于非集计模型的居民公交出行次数选择行为研究.pdf

文档介绍：基于非集计模型的居民公交出行次数
选择行为研究
倪亚洲1 刘彤 2 巩丽媛 2
(1 济南市城市交通研究中心,山东济南 250031 2 济南市城市交通研究中心,山东济南 250031)

摘要:结合城市居民出行调查数据,对城市居民出行特征进行了分析。基于非集计选择模型
的基本理论与建模方法,通过列联表分析及相关性分析确定了影响居民出行次数选择的特性变
量,建立居民公交出行次数选择 ML 模型。应用 TransCAD 交通规划软件对模型的参数进行
了标定,利用枚举法对非集计模型的计算结果进行了集计分析。将模型计算结果与样本的实际
次数选择比例进行对比,进一步确定模型的有效性。
关键词:非集计模型;出行次数;列联表分析;TransCAD

Study of Urban Residents Bus Travel Times
Choosing Behavior
NI Ya-zhou1 LIU Tong2 GONG Li-yuan2
(1 Jinan Urban Transport Reserach Center,Jinan Shandong 250031,China
2 Jinan Urban Transport Reserach Center,Jinan Shandong 250031,China)

Abstract: Referring to the survey data of urban residents’daily travel,characters of urban citizens’travel in Public
transport were analyzed. Based on the theory of disaggregate discrete choice and its modeling method,characteristic
variables affecting times choice were determined by contingency table analysis and correlation analysis,a
Multinomial Logit Model (MNL) was developed model’s parameters were calibrated by applying
TransCAD software,and disaggregate model results were aggregated by using validity of the model
was determined further paring the model results with the actual sample selection ratio of travel times.
Key words: disaggregate model;travel times;contingency table analysis;TransCAD

0 引言
非集计交通需求分析的理论和实证应用研究主要集中在出行生成和方式选择上 1、2、3、4,