文档介绍：摘要
房地产在我国经济体系中至关重要,由于近几年开发投资过热,导致风险不断攀高。因此在房地产投资过程中对其风险分析尤为重要。
目前在房地产投资风险分析中,一般采用传统的盈亏分析法、敏感性分析法、风险调查法。这些方法存在严重的片面性:只能对影响项目某个变量分析决策而不能对多个风险变量同时相关分析,只能对风险变量模糊评价而不能得出概率分布图,缺乏科学性。而本文所采用的蒙特卡罗法弥补了以上不足而且容易上手操作,便于实现。
本文通过分析影响房地产投资风险变量,基于Excel插件CB作出各变量概率分布图,在Excel中定义甲乙两方案NPV IRR通过CB随机数发生器产生符合各风险变量随机数,然后运行随后产生其概率分布图,通过对比分析得出两方案谁最优。
关键词: 房地产开发;风险变量;风险分析;蒙特卡罗
Abstact
Real estate in our country economic system is very due to overheating investment development in recent years, in the process of real estate investment risk analysis is particularly important.
Currently in real estate investment risk analysis, generally uses the traditional profit and loss analysis, sensitivity analysis, risk survey serious bias: these methods can affect the project decision-making variable analysis and cannot be on more risk variables related analysis at the same time, only the fuzzy evaluation and cannot be concluded that probability distribution of risk variables, the lack of scientific nature. And the monte carlo method adopted in this paper more than makes up for the insufficient and easy operation, easy to implement.
In this paper, by analyzing the influence of real estate investment risk variables, based on Excel plug-in CB to probability distribution of the variables, defined in the Excel both party a and party b project NPV IRR by CB random number generator to produce in accordance with the random numbers of risk variables, and then run then its probability distribution, analysis paring the two scheme is optimal.
Key Word:real estate development ;risk variables;the risk analysis ;the monte carlo
目录
摘要 I
Abstact II
1 绪论 1
研究背景及目的 1
房地产业的历史与现状 1
房地产投资风险研究的意义 2
国内外房地产投资风险研究的现状 3
国外房地产风险研究现状 3
国内房地产风险研究现状 4
本文研究的内容与创新点 5
本文研究的内容 5
本文研究的创新点 5
研究方案 5
2 蒙特卡罗概况及建模 7
蒙特卡罗方法概述 7
蒙特卡罗法原理 7
蒙特卡罗法优点 8
蒙特卡罗方法步骤 8
蒙特卡罗法建立模型 10
主要费用和收入 10
模型建立 12