文档介绍：信贷规模、房价波动和经济增长之间的关系
——基于省际面板数据的实证分析*罗小刚(1987-),男,四川南充人,南京大学商学院硕士研究生。主要研究方向:房地产经济与金融。电子邮箱:dwevoli43@
罗小刚
(南京大学, 江苏南京 210093)
摘要:本文运用联立方程模型、面板分析技术及省际面板数据研究发现,我国信贷规模、房价波动与经济增长之间具有紧密的联系。分区域的实证研究结果显示:各地区房价的上涨与金融支持有关,过度的金融支持使东中部地区的房价偏离了经济基本面;中西部地区房价的上涨对信贷规模的扩张有显著影响,而经济增长是各地区促进信贷规模扩张的共同因素。此外,房价的上涨与信贷规模的扩张共同促进了我国各区域经济的繁荣。
关键词:信贷规模; 房价波动;经济增长;面板数据
Credit Scale, Real Estate Fluctuation and Economic Growth:
The Empirical Analysis of the Provincial Panel Data
(Luo Xiaogang)
(Nanjing University, JiangShu NanJing 210093,China)
Abstract: This paper uses simultaneous equations model based on national and provincial panel data to study on the credit scale, housing prices, and economic growth. We find that there is a close relationship among credit scale, housing prices and economic growth. But the empirical research of their relationship in every region of China shows differentia to us. The results reveals that credit sclae is the most effective factor pulling regional housing prices and housing prices are deviation from fundamentals in Eastern region and Middle region. In the two regions, the rising housing prices have significant impact on bank lending expansion and the effects do not exist in Eastern region.
On the other hand, economic growth is mon factor pulling bank lending expansion in every region. The analysis also suggests that housing prices and bank lending expansion have accelerated the boom of economy.
Key words: Credit Scale; Real Estate Price Fluctuation; Economic Growth; Panel Data
1 引言
中国自1998年实施住房货币化改革以来,大量银行信贷资金以住房消费贷款、房地产开发贷款、土地储备贷款等多种形式流入房地产市场,金融支持下的房地产市场得到极大繁荣,成为推动我国经济持续高位增长的重要因素。但是,随着房地产价格的持续快速上涨,银行信贷资金迅速聚集于房地产业,宏观经济也出现过热的趋势。这一过程与20世纪80年代以来,一些发达国家和新兴市场国家在金融自由化改革进程中经历的房价泡沫与经济过热颇为相似。为防止历史的重现,避免出现金融危机或者经济衰退,系统地探讨房价波动、银行信贷与经济增长三者之间的相互作用机制,就成为具有中国实践意义和政策涵义的重大课题。
关于信贷规模、房价波动与经济增长互动关系的研究目前已取得一些有益的探索。Davis和Zhu(2004)认为,从长期看银行信贷与房价是正相关的,并且房价对银行信贷的影响十分显著,但反向影响尚不明朗[ 1 ];Borio和Lowe (2002)注意到,资产价格的上涨与信贷的增加如影随形[ 2 ]。这反映出常规的信贷行为是顺经济周期的。信贷数量的上升以及随之引发的资产价格上涨也都会