文档介绍：学士学位论文
论文题目: 数学模型在人口预测中的应用
年级专业: 统计学
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数学模型在人口预测中的应用
学生:
专业: 统计学
指导教师:
摘要
人口问题是我国发展的关键因素之一。无论是对我国目前经济发展状况的认识,还是对未来经济发展的预测,人口问题的研究都具有十分重要的意义。人口规划是城市和土地利用总体规划的一项重要的控制性指标,人口模型是否合理,将对未来的地区经济和社会发展造成影响,影响各方面的协调可持续发展,因此准确的预测未来人口发展的趋势,制定合理的人口规划和人口布局方案具有重大的理论意义和现实意义。运用马尔萨斯人口模型、Logistic 增长模型和线性回归分析方法,利用《吉林市统计年鉴》人口数据对磐石市2010~2020 年的人口发展规模做出预测。预测结果显示3种模型均取得了良好的模拟效果,但马尔萨斯模型和Logistic模型的模拟精度比线性回归更理想,在模型验证过程中,前两者的平均先对误差较小。故采用马尔萨斯模型和Logistic模型的平均模型对人口进行预测,结果为2010年达到人口549055人,至2020年磐石市人口人数达到563320人。
关键词:人口预测;马尔萨斯模型;Logistic增长模型;拟合检验
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APPLICATION OF MATHEMATICAL MODELS IN PREDICATION OF THE POPILATION
Name: Hongjian Xu
Major:Statistic
Tutor: Yujing Du
Abstract
Population is one of the key factors of our country's development. Population studies are of great significance both for our understanding of current economic development situation and forecast of future economic development. The population planning is an important controlling indicator for urban and land use planning. Demographic model is important for future regional economy, social development and all-round sustainable development, so accurate prediction the future trend of population development, making reasonable population planning and population distribution program is of great theoretical and practical significance. The scale of population development of Panshi City of 2010-2020 is predicted with help of Malthusian population model, logistic growth model, linear regression analysis and Statistical Yearbook of Jilin City. Prediction shows that three models were achieved good simulation results, but the Malthusian model's and the Logistic model's simulation accuracy is better than linear regression. During the model verification process, the first two models' average error is smaller. Therefore the average model of the Malthusian model and Logistic model has been used to predict the population, the result for the population of Panshi City is 549,055 by 2010, and 56