文档介绍：欧债危机的成因、演进路径及其对中国经济的影响1

张晓晶李成
(中国社会科学院经济研究所,北京 100836)

摘要:正当全球经济从金融危机中缓慢复苏,欧洲又笼罩在主权债务危机的阴影之中。
本文首先介绍了这次危机的背景与成因,指出欧债问题本质上是欧洲经济一体化的框架缺陷
在金融危机冲击下的一次总爆发。随后,我们就欧债危机的演进路径进行了简要的分析与判
断,并着重讨论了危机向银行、非金融私人部门以及美国经济的传导。最后,本文展望了欧
债危机对中国经济的影响,认为虽然在现阶段,危机带来的直接不利影响是有限和可控的,
但这无疑给中国经济的前景增添了很大的不确定性。

关键词:主权债务金融危机欧洲经济一体化

European Sovereign Debt Crisis:
Reasons, Evolutionary Path and Effects on Chinese Economy

Abstract: This study addresses the ongoing European sovereign debt crisis,
which casts a gloom over the fragile recovery of the world economy. We first argue
that the flaws in the current framework of the European economic integration, along
with the global financial tsunami, are the principal responsible for the debt crisis. The
next section of the paper turns to the evolutionary path of the crisis, especially its
transmission toward the banking sector, non-financial private sector, and the US
economy as a whole. Eventually, we discuss the potential effects of European debt
crisis on Chinese economy, and consider that despites the limited direct effects, the
crisis brings a great deal of uncertainty about China’s economic perspectives.

Keywords: Sovereign debt; Financial crisis; European economic integration

1 本文受国家社科基金重大招标课题“贯彻落实科学发展观与完善宏观调控体系”(批准文号 07&ZD004,
首席专家张晓晶)的资助。文中吸纳了张平研究员的意见,特此感谢。当然文责自负。
1
一、欧洲主权债务危机是国