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第25卷第11期电网技术 V ol. 25 N o. 11

2001年11月 Pow er System Technology N ov. 2001
文章编号: 1000 3673 (2001) 11 0010 05
基于蒙特卡罗模拟的概率潮流计算
丁明, 李生虎, 黄凯
(合肥工业大学电气工程学院, 安徽省合肥市 230009)
PROBABIL ISTIC LOAD FLOW ANALYSIS BASED ON MONTE-CARLO SIM ULATION
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D IN G M ing, L I Sheng hu, HUAN G Kai
(H efei U niversity of Technology, H efei 230009, A nhui P rovince, Ch ina)
ABSTRACT: In view of the ings in dealing w ith the 不确定性, 探讨相应的数学建模、计算机算法和实际
correlation of pow er variations among nodes by p robabilistic 应用, 称为概率潮流(PL F) 研究。PL F 可用于分析线
pow er flow algorithm at p resent, in random change 路潮流、节点电压的概率分布、期望值、方差和极限
,
work topology and in evaluating indices a p robabilistic pow er 值, 以期对整个电网在各种运行条件下的性能有一
flow algorithm based on M onte Carlo sim ulation is put for
个全面、综合的评价, 并对电网存在的薄弱环节做出
w ard. In this algorithm the K m eans cluster load model is
量化分析, 这些信息对规划和调度部门的决策极具
adop ted, the forced outage and p laned outage of both genera
参考价值, 因而广泛应用于中长期电网规划和短期
tion and transm ission equipm ents are considered and the influ
运行规划[1, 2 ]、状态估计及量测点布置[3, 4 ]、输电系统
ences of secondary elem ents such as p rotective relaying and re
[5 ] [6 ]
closers work model are taken into account. Thus, a 输送容量和无功规划等。在电力市场环境下, 由
p lete fram ework of risk assessm ent indices is estab 于发电竞价上网、输电转送等因素, 潮流分布的不确
lished and a rem arkable p rogre