文档介绍：中文摘要
摘要
天津房地产市场近十年一直保持稳定发展态势。特别是在 2003 年,由于受到
市政府进行的大规模拆迁影响,市民对房地产的刚性需求被大量释放,与此同时
房地产投资也有了一个飞跃,供需双方的增长促成了天津房地产市场新一轮的起
飞。但是在近两年天津房地产市场快速发展过程中存在着供应结构不合理,商品
房价格上涨过快等不稳定因素,由此引发了人们对天津房地产市场是否存在过热
现象、有没有泡沫的激烈讨论。因此有必要在这个关键的时期详细地梳理天津房
地产的发展情况,这对于保持天津房地产业与国民经济共同持续健康快速发展具
有重要的意义。
本文的研究内容主要集中在对天津房地产市场发展情况的分析和对未来市场
发展走势的展望两个方面。
对天津房地产市场发展情况的分析主要包括了 4 个方面的内容:一是对影响
天津房地产市场发展的宏观发展环境的分析;二是对天津房地产市场供求双方以
及商品房价格的分析;三是对天津市房地产市场发展与宏观经济的互动关系的分
析;四是提出的一些政策建议。
对天津市未来房地产市场发展走势的展望采用定性分析和定量分析相结合的
方法对未来两年天津市房地产市场的供应量、需求量以及 2006 年商品房的价格进
行了预测。
本文的最后部分对研究的内容做了总结,认为目前天津的房地产市场整体是
比较健康的,未来市场会继续繁荣发展,2006 年商品房价格水平会在 2005 年基
础上继续稳定上涨。
关键词:房地产市场,互动关系,预测
I
中文摘要
ABSTRACT
Tianjin’s real estate market has maintained a stable development situation for
nearly ten years. Especially in 2003, because of the ing under the
large-scale relocation which the municipal government carried on, the resident’s rigid
demand for the real estat is massively released, while at the same time, the real estate
investment also had a leap. The both sides growth of supply and demand facilitated
Tianjin’s real estate market a new taking-off. However, such unstable factors as the
unreasonable supply structure, the over-speed of modity housing’s price and
ect..exist in the process of Tianjin’s real estate market’s fast development in recent two
years, which initiates the discussion of whether the market has some over-hot
phenomenon and whether it has some bubbles. Therefore it is quite necessary in this
crucial time to analyze the Tianjin’s real estate market development status in detail, in
order that both of the Tianjin’s real estate industry and the national economy can
healthily develop at a favorable speed.
The research of this article will mainly concentrate on two aspects which are the
analysis of Tianjin’s real estate market development status and the forecast of the
market’s future development trend.
There are four