文档介绍：研究领域:劳动经济学
失业保险是否会造成长期失业?
——运用生存模型对青岛市失业者的经验研究
马驰骋
(中国海洋大学经济学院)
摘要:西方关于失业保险与失业持续时间关系的理论和经验研究表明,失业保险的存在会延长失业者的失业持续时间,造成长期失业。本文应用我数据,对青岛市失业保险如何影响失业持续时间进行了经验研究。通过对失业持续时间的寿命表估计和Cox回归发现,青岛市享受失业保险者的失业持续时间要明显长于不享受失业保险者,并且在享受失业保险者当中,享受24个月失业保险者要比享受12个月失业保险者有着更长的失业持续时间;另外,失业者的再就业风险率在失业期内是动态变化的。这说明,我国的失业保险制度同样对失业者的再就业行为具有负激励效应,延长了失业持续时间。
关键词:失业保险;失业持续时间;再就业风险率
Do Unemployment Insurance Boosts Long Unemployment Duration? Evidence From Qingdao Using Suvival Analysis
Chicheng Ma
(College of Economics, Ocean University of China )
Abstract: The analysis of unemployment insurance (UI) and unemployment duration has been an active subject of both theoretical and empirical work for the past three decades in the western. The key predictions of the study have found that UI can boost long unemployment duration. Our data are taken from official registered unemployment records of Qingdao. Using Life-table method and Cox proportional hazard model, we find clear evidences that the UI receivers have a longer unemployment duration than the non-receivers, and the UI receivers who have 24 months UI duration have a longer unemployment duration than the UI receivers who have 12 months. The results also suggest that the hazard rate of re-employment is dynamic in unemployment duration. In conclusion, UI of China have also disincentive effects on the job search behaviour of unemployed persons and boosts long unemployment duration.
Key words: unemploument insurance; unemployment duration; re-employment hazard rate
失业保险对失业持续时间的影响效应一直是近30年来西方失业研究中的重点问题。已有的理论和经验研究表明,过高的失业保险水平是造成西方福利国家存在众多长期失业者的主要原因之一。Mortensen的动态搜寻理论认为:失业保险的存在会改变失业价值和失业者的预期,对失业者的工作搜寻行为产生影响,进而决定失业持续时间。失业保险增加了享受失业保险的失业者来失业价值,使得工作搜寻强度会下降,保留工资上升,延长了失业持续时间;而对于不享受失业保险的失业者,由于失业价值较低,并且潜在的失业保险收益使得未来就业和失业的预期价值上升,从而激励其努力寻找工作,增加了再就业概率,缩短了失业持续时间。另外,当失业保险金的发放期限快要到期时,享受失业保险失业者的工作搜寻强度会上升,保留工资下降,再就业概率会有明显的提高。
通过对我国失业持续时间的计算,我数据来看,除删失(censored)数据外,青岛市最长的失业持续时间为39个月,但对于我国失业保险如何影响失业持续时间这一问题,目前仍未有较深入地研究。我国目前的失业保险制度基